• Snake eyes from the bar

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 24 16:25:12 2023
    XGID=----CBBaC---eCAa-b-d-b---A:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O | +---+
    | X O | | O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X O | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 11

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Feb 26 08:40:11 2023
    XGID=----CBBaC---eCAa-b-d-b---A:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O O | | O O | +---+
    | X O | | O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X O | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 11

    After bar/24 8/7*, the question is whether to make the bar point or
    to lift both blots. I opted for bar/24 14/13 8/7*(2), which gives
    good chances of making a five-prime at the cost of a couple of
    indirect shots. But XG says to lift both blots. I think the point
    is that X's main game plans are attacking and/or racing, rather than
    priming. A blot on the 8pt is not just a liability on this roll;
    it may force X to do something about cleaning it up later, when he
    would rather be focused on escaping his straggler.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 14/13 8/7* 7/6 eq:+0.461
    Player: 68.17% (G:27.78% B:0.64%)
    Opponent: 31.83% (G:6.35% B:0.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.453..+0.469) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7*(3) eq:+0.389 (-0.072)
    Player: 66.13% (G:26.82% B:0.66%)
    Opponent: 33.87% (G:7.47% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.381..+0.397) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 14/13 8/7*(2) eq:+0.385 (-0.076)
    Player: 66.03% (G:25.96% B:0.66%)
    Opponent: 33.97% (G:6.69% B:0.28%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.377..+0.394) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7* 7/5 eq:+0.380 (-0.081)
    Player: 65.61% (G:27.67% B:0.64%)
    Opponent: 34.39% (G:7.77% B:0.38%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.372..+0.388) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/7* 7/6 eq:+0.367 (-0.094)
    Player: 65.43% (G:26.59% B:0.71%)
    Opponent: 34.57% (G:7.69% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.359..+0.375) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ Bar/23 14/13 8/7* eq:+0.334 (-0.127)
    Player: 64.42% (G:25.94% B:0.70%)
    Opponent: 35.58% (G:7.42% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.324..+0.343) - [0.0%]

    7. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/7*(2) eq:+0.330 (-0.131)
    Player: 64.77% (G:26.16% B:0.75%)
    Opponent: 35.23% (G:8.48% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.318..+0.341) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)