From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Sun Feb 26 08:40:11 2023
XGID=----CBBaC---eCAa-b-d-b---A:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11
After bar/24 8/7*, the question is whether to make the bar point or
to lift both blots. I opted for bar/24 14/13 8/7*(2), which gives
good chances of making a five-prime at the cost of a couple of
indirect shots. But XG says to lift both blots. I think the point
is that X's main game plans are attacking and/or racing, rather than
priming. A blot on the 8pt is not just a liability on this roll;
it may force X to do something about cleaning it up later, when he
would rather be focused on escaping his straggler.
1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 14/13 8/7* 7/6 eq:+0.461
Player: 68.17% (G:27.78% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 31.83% (G:6.35% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.453..+0.469) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7*(3) eq:+0.389 (-0.072)
Player: 66.13% (G:26.82% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 33.87% (G:7.47% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.381..+0.397) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 14/13 8/7*(2) eq:+0.385 (-0.076)
Player: 66.03% (G:25.96% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 33.97% (G:6.69% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.377..+0.394) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7* 7/5 eq:+0.380 (-0.081)
Player: 65.61% (G:27.67% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 34.39% (G:7.77% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.372..+0.388) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/7* 7/6 eq:+0.367 (-0.094)
Player: 65.43% (G:26.59% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 34.57% (G:7.69% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.359..+0.375) - [0.0%]
6. Rollout¹ Bar/23 14/13 8/7* eq:+0.334 (-0.127)
Player: 64.42% (G:25.94% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 35.58% (G:7.42% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.324..+0.343) - [0.0%]
7. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/7*(2) eq:+0.330 (-0.131)
Player: 64.77% (G:26.16% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 35.23% (G:8.48% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.318..+0.341) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)