XGID=-ABBBCAb----bB----B-bb-eb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 92 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 4:29:59 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-ABBBCAb----bB----B-bb-eb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 92 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

Despite the wastage in a close race, I'm playing all fours from my inner board. This gives me an excellent opportunity to hit a shot on my next roll.
So there's a clear path to victory here: Opponent rolls a 5 or a 6 (but not 55 or 66),
we hit, opponent dances on our four point board.
This combined parlay is obviously much much less than 50%, but it is significant,
and furthermore, we're fine if it doesn't happen, and hitting is great even if the opponent doesn't dance.
So I do think we emerge as strong favourites.
Other plays just leave a mutual stalemate situation where neither side wants to leave a shot, and we emerge
only as a very slight favourite.
Big blunder to play something else.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-ABBBCAb----bB----B-bb-eb-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 92 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

This roll puts X slightly ahead in the race (if we account for
O's wastage) so I opted to minimize contact with 18/14(2) 13/9(2).
I was amazed that XG wants to close X's board and volunteer a
direct shot when O has a four-point board of her own. What I
failed to appreciate was that even after most hit/dance sequences,
O is still an underdog. She still has to get her checkers around
the board, and any return shot from X is instant death for O
(unless of course O has already borne off a bunch of checkers).

I wasn't originally planning to roll out Paul's play but I've
included it below.

1. Rollout¹ 18/6 5/1 eq:+0.672
Player: 66.49% (G:15.78% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 33.51% (G:0.90% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.662..+0.682) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2 5/1 eq:+0.580 (-0.092)
Player: 64.83% (G:10.27% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 35.17% (G:1.23% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.571..+0.590) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/14(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.565 (-0.107)
Player: 65.59% (G:6.41% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 34.41% (G:1.34% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.555..+0.576) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/2 5/1(3) eq:+0.163 (-0.509)
Player: 54.72% (G:5.86% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 45.28% (G:3.95% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.152..+0.175) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, August 17, 2021 at 4:10:37 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
...

I wasn't originally planning to roll out Paul's play but I've
included it below.

I prefer your original (non-) plan.
Thanks for the problem, anyway.
I correctly guessed that there was a twist with the position being played in a non-standard way,
but I didn't find the right avenue for originality.
I doubt I would have made my play over the board.

Paul

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