• Trying to understand the right play

    From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to All on Wed Feb 22 15:05:16 2023
    As far as I can tell, filling the home board behind the anchor is meant to prepare for an anticipated blitz by O and its associated exchange of hits. My instinct is to keep points out in front of O's anchor to block and then to hit when that anchor
    breaks.
    Any insights would be appreciated. Am I right on the idea of preparing for a blitz?

    Bob

    XGID=---a-bEBC---cC---bad--AAb-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O X X O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X O |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O O X | | X X O |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    1. XG Roller++ 7/4(2) 6/3*(2) eq:+0.494
    Player: 62.12% (G:15.45% B:0.55%)
    Opponent: 37.88% (G:8.96% B:0.19%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/10(2) 6/3*(2) eq:+0.342 (-0.152)
    Player: 58.96% (G:14.44% B:0.61%)
    Opponent: 41.04% (G:10.63% B:0.26%)

    3. XG Roller++ 13/7 6/3*(2) eq:+0.332 (-0.161)
    Player: 59.13% (G:13.85% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 40.87% (G:10.86% B:0.21%)

    4. XG Roller++ 23/20 13/10 6/3*(2) eq:+0.261 (-0.233)
    Player: 57.61% (G:12.73% B:0.50%)
    Opponent: 42.39% (G:11.65% B:0.30%)

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  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Wed Feb 22 15:42:47 2023
    On Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:05:18 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    As far as I can tell, filling the home board behind the anchor is meant to prepare for an anticipated blitz by O and its associated exchange of hits. My instinct is to keep points out in front of O's anchor to block and then to hit when that anchor
    breaks.
    Any insights would be appreciated. Am I right on the idea of preparing for a blitz?

    Bob

    XGID=---a-bEBC---cC---bad--AAb-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O X X O | | O O X |
    | O O | | O X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X O |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O O X | | X X O |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    1. XG Roller++ 7/4(2) 6/3*(2) eq:+0.494
    Player: 62.12% (G:15.45% B:0.55%)
    Opponent: 37.88% (G:8.96% B:0.19%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/10(2) 6/3*(2) eq:+0.342 (-0.152)
    Player: 58.96% (G:14.44% B:0.61%)
    Opponent: 41.04% (G:10.63% B:0.26%)

    3. XG Roller++ 13/7 6/3*(2) eq:+0.332 (-0.161)
    Player: 59.13% (G:13.85% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 40.87% (G:10.86% B:0.21%)

    4. XG Roller++ 23/20 13/10 6/3*(2) eq:+0.261 (-0.233)
    Player: 57.61% (G:12.73% B:0.50%)
    Opponent: 42.39% (G:11.65% B:0.30%)

    The right play here is virtually always going to be make the best two inner board points while hitting. It's obnoxiously correct here because the opponent has another blot loose on the board you'd love to have another go at and making more inner board
    points makes that much more likely to happen. Your opp's position is overextended so the rest of the game he'll have a hard time finding numbers to play cleanly so in that sense, yes, you're preparing to hit more blots for the rest of the game.

    Stick

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Thu Feb 23 00:04:48 2023
    On 2/22/2023 6:05 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    As far as I can tell, filling the home board behind the anchor is meant to prepare for an anticipated blitz by O and its associated exchange of hits. My instinct is to keep points out in front of O's anchor to block and then to hit when that anchor
    breaks.
    Any insights would be appreciated. Am I right on the idea of preparing for a blitz?

    The term "blitz" has a connotation of trying to close out the
    opponent. That's not possible when the opponent has an anchor,
    so maybe the word "attack" is better here. When the opponent
    has the golden anchor, neither attacking nor priming is going
    to be easy, but priming the golden anchor is nearly impossible,
    whereas it's still potentially possible to carry out an attack
    if you make a bunch of home-board points and hit lots of blots.

    Your strategy of blocking O's anchor and hitting when the anchor
    breaks is really applicable in only one situation, where it's
    like a holding game but you're behind in the race; then, it's your
    only viable game plan. If you still have decent attacking chances
    then you generally should try for that. If nothing else, you will
    hopefully gain pips so that if and when it turns into a holding
    game, you'll be ahead in the race.

    ---
    Tim Chow

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  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Feb 23 04:59:21 2023
    On Thursday, February 23, 2023 at 12:04:49 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 2/22/2023 6:05 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    As far as I can tell, filling the home board behind the anchor is meant to prepare for an anticipated blitz by O and its associated exchange of hits. My instinct is to keep points out in front of O's anchor to block and then to hit when that anchor
    breaks.
    Any insights would be appreciated. Am I right on the idea of preparing for a blitz?
    The term "blitz" has a connotation of trying to close out the
    opponent. That's not possible when the opponent has an anchor,
    so maybe the word "attack" is better here. When the opponent
    has the golden anchor, neither attacking nor priming is going
    to be easy, but priming the golden anchor is nearly impossible,
    whereas it's still potentially possible to carry out an attack
    if you make a bunch of home-board points and hit lots of blots.

    Your strategy of blocking O's anchor and hitting when the anchor
    breaks is really applicable in only one situation, where it's
    like a holding game but you're behind in the race; then, it's your
    only viable game plan. If you still have decent attacking chances
    then you generally should try for that. If nothing else, you will
    hopefully gain pips so that if and when it turns into a holding
    game, you'll be ahead in the race.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Thank you, Tim and Stick. Just to be clear, Tim, I wasn't thinking about X, our side, blitzing. I thought that maybe the right play was somehow related to O's best option, a blitz, now that here ace point is made and our back checkers are targets. I
    wondered if making our home board points was somehow favored in anticipation of an exchange of hits once O started her blitz. But you both have pointed out that it isn't so complex. It's simply a matter of making your home board at this phase of the game,
    particularly with white's blots. Staying out in front of O's anchor isn't needed given the closeness of the race.
    Really helpful comments. Thanks.
    Bob

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