On Thursday, February 16, 2023 at 10:10:24 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=----bBE-CB--bBaa-bbc-b--A-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43
Magriel cautioned against "coming under the gun" of three builders,
so what would he say about five builders? But ask yourself this
question: If you knew ahead of time that O was going to roll 61
next, would you choose 24/20 6/3 or 8/5 6/2? It may surprise you
that XG still prefers 24/20 6/3. Nobody likes getting pointed on,
but nobody likes getting five-primed either. And of course if O
rolls something like 43, then 24/20 definitely pays off; it's a
distraction play that forces O to do something about X's threats
rather than just quietly improve her position.
1. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/3 eq:-0.449
Player: 39.22% (G:10.39% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 60.78% (G:16.29% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.463..-0.435) - [80.8%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/20 8/5 eq:-0.458 (-0.009)
Player: 38.85% (G:9.73% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 61.15% (G:16.37% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.473..-0.443) - [19.2%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/2 eq:-0.538 (-0.089)
Player: 35.85% (G:8.13% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 64.15% (G:13.37% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.550..-0.526) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/2 eq:-0.542 (-0.093)
Player: 35.95% (G:8.48% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 64.05% (G:14.21% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.555..-0.529) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
In short, if you're toast when they make the 5pt anyway, might as well step up and get the benefit from when they don't.
Stick
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)