On 2/9/2023 3:58 PM, Axel Reichert wrote:
"ah....Clem" <ah_clem@ymail.com> writes:
Apply your favorite race cube formulas in these two related positions:
She gets 1 pip penalty for the additional checker.
Then it is
80 - 24/3 + 2*2 = 76 <= 76
in the first case (D/T) and
80 - 24/3 + 2*1 = 78 > 76
in the second one (D/P).
I was a bit confused about the rollout here, mainly because I got the
equities mixed up, but I'm still scratching my head a bit.
Isight says the first position is right at the point of last take, so it
should be a close take (and perhaps a close pass depending on some
features of the position that the adjusted pipcount doesn't account for
- e.g. X can afford to miss once while O cannot) Rollout says it's a
blunder to pass this one. (see variant below)
XGID=---AAAB------------abaaa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 24 O: 25 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.499, Double=+0.997
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.718 (-0.194)
Double/Take: +0.912
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.088)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.716..+0.720)
Confidence Double: ± 0.003 (+0.909..+0.914)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1.8 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
///////////////
//variant
///////////////
Moving the spare back a pip leads to the Isight verdict of clear D/P,
but the rollout has the take decision razor thin (and four ply says D/T)
Isight gets both positions right, but I expected the first position to
be a close take and the second to be a clear pass. Didn't try other race
cube formulae.
XGID=---AAAB------------baaaa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 24 O: 26 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 77.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.93% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.542, Double=+1.083
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.768 (-0.232)
Double/Take: +1.009 (+0.009)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.001 (+0.766..+0.769)
Confidence Double: ± 0.002 (+1.007..+1.011)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2.2 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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