GNU Backgammon Position ID: b28DAEB3bocAAA
Match ID : AQFgAXAAAAAE
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2)
| O O O O O | | O | 7 points
| O O O O O | | | On roll
| O O O O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |^ 11 point match
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X X | | |
| X X X X X | X | | 0 points
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ X: axel
Pip counts: O 59, X 63
On 2/9/2023 1:42 AM, Axel Reichert wrote:
GNU Backgammon Position ID: b28DAEB3bocAAACoincidentally, I faced a similar cube decision yesterday.
Match ID : AQFgAXAAAAAE
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2)
| O O O O O | | O | 7 points
| O O O O O | | | On roll
| O O O O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |^ 11 point match
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X X | | |
| X X X X X | X | | 0 points
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ X: axel
Pip counts: O 59, X 63
The score was exactly the same as it is here; X needs about
6/57, or a little over 10%, to take. (Stick, perhaps, calls
this the "live" cube takepoint, whatever that means.) If X
were closed out then it would be a huge pass, but it's not
so easy for O to complete the closeout, so X has some persistent
chances of hitting a shot or even just winning the race. Hard
to judge, but I'd guess that X has between 10% and 15% chances
of winning, so I'd take.
---
Tim Chow
GNU Backgammon Position ID: b28DAEB3bocAAA
Match ID : AQFgAXAAAAAE
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2)
| O O O O O | | O | 7 points
| O O O O O | | | On roll
| O O O O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |^ 11 point match
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X X | | |
| X X X X X | X | | 0 points
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ X: axel
Pip counts: O 59, X 63
You know the dead cube take point in money games is 25% right? You know the live cube take point is a lot lower than that, generally accepted as ~22% but it fluctuated depending on how much use one might gain from cube ownership right? I don'tunderstand what you're not understanding.
On 2/9/2023 2:52 PM, Stick Rice wrote:understand what you're not understanding.
You know the dead cube take point in money games is 25% right? You know the live cube take point is a lot lower than that, generally accepted as ~22% but it fluctuated depending on how much use one might gain from cube ownership right? I don't
I don't understand why one would use the adjective "live cube"
to refer to a dead cube.
Here, we don't have a dead cube or a live cube in my opinion.
This follows the general rule: When two adults are arguing with each
other, the most usual thing is that there's a degree of right and wrong
on both sides. Most of the Stick/Tim debates are like that, in my
judgment, despite Stick's much greater bg abilities and reputation.
GNU Backgammon Position ID: b28DAEB3bocAAA
Match ID : AQFgAXAAAAAE
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ O: gnubg (Cube: 2)
| O O O O O | | O | 7 points
| O O O O O | | | On roll
| O O O O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |^ 11 point match
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X X | | |
| X X X X X | X | | 0 points
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ X: axel
Pip counts: O 59, X 63
Races are easy to play, hence match equity calculations make sense
there.
On 2/15/2023 2:56 AM, Axel Reichert wrote:
Races are easy to play, hence match equity calculations make senseNice example. I agree that races are probably the type of position
there.
where a fish MET is the most instructive. But there's still a lot
of handwaving, even if you have accurate Elo estimates. In particular,
while the checker play in a race is usually easy, the cube action is
not. So really, one should factor in some estimate of how likely the
player is to make correct cube decisions in subsequent play. This can
be difficult.
On Thursday, February 16, 2023 at 3:02:19 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
On 2/15/2023 2:56 AM, Axel Reichert wrote:
Races are easy to play, hence match equity calculations make senseNice example. I agree that races are probably the type of position
there.
where a fish MET is the most instructive. But there's still a lot
of handwaving, even if you have accurate Elo estimates. In particular,
while the checker play in a race is usually easy, the cube action is
not. So really, one should factor in some estimate of how likely the
player is to make correct cube decisions in subsequent play. This can
be difficult.
I'd like to clarify that. Optimal checker play in a race is actually incredibly
difficult. Plays that look equivalent will differ in equity by 0.0001 (for example)
and no one will know why. The easy thing is playing your checkers in a race so
that you never make an error that is worse than 0.01.
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