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  • I didn't roll out 8/2

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Feb 6 09:42:30 2023
    XGID=-a---aE-C---cDa--d-da---BA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 179 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Feb 7 17:54:46 2023
    On 2/6/2023 9:42 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a---aE-C---cDa--d-da---BA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X  O        O    |   | O  O           X |
     | X           O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     |                  | X |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X  O           O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 179  O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    It's usually better to slot the 18 instead of the seven point. Is there
    a good reason to slot the seven here? I'm not seeing it.

    Is the passive 8/2 the bot play? Maybe, but this far behind in the race
    and O without a board it doesn't seem like playing safe is thematic.


    QF says othewise, but I'll play 24/18.
    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Feb 8 10:47:39 2023
    XGID=-a---aE-C---cDa--d-da---BA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 179 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    Walter Trice wrote a GammonVillage article a long time ago about when
    to play 13/7 versus 24/18. Being behind in the pip count is one reason
    to consider 13/7, going for a priming game. However, splitting off the
    24pt is an excellent distraction play, interfering with O's plans to
    make her 5pt peacefully.

    For the variant, I have moved a checker from X's 24pt to his midpoint.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 24/18 eq:-0.542
    Player: 38.15% (G:8.18% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 61.85% (G:21.20% B:1.16%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.559..-0.524) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/15 eq:-0.633 (-0.091)
    Player: 36.51% (G:8.19% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 63.49% (G:21.82% B:1.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.648..-0.618) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/7 eq:-0.647 (-0.105)
    Player: 36.12% (G:8.25% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 63.88% (G:22.04% B:1.96%)
    Confidence: ±0.021 (-0.668..-0.626) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a---aE-C---cEa--d-da---AA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 168 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/15 eq:-0.465
    Player: 40.08% (G:8.09% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 59.92% (G:19.61% B:0.74%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.479..-0.451) - [58.4%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 24/18 eq:-0.467 (-0.003)
    Player: 39.69% (G:7.69% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 60.31% (G:19.74% B:0.59%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.483..-0.452) - [40.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/7 eq:-0.483 (-0.018)
    Player: 38.85% (G:9.00% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 61.15% (G:18.79% B:1.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.498..-0.468) - [1.6%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Feb 8 12:06:56 2023
    On Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 10:47:43 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a---aE-C---cDa--d-da---BA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 179 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    Walter Trice wrote a GammonVillage article a long time ago about when
    to play 13/7 versus 24/18. Being behind in the pip count is one reason
    to consider 13/7, going for a priming game. However, splitting off the
    24pt is an excellent distraction play, interfering with O's plans to
    make her 5pt peacefully.

    For the variant, I have moved a checker from X's 24pt to his midpoint.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 24/18 eq:-0.542
    Player: 38.15% (G:8.18% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 61.85% (G:21.20% B:1.16%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.559..-0.524) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/15 eq:-0.633 (-0.091)
    Player: 36.51% (G:8.19% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 63.49% (G:21.82% B:1.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.648..-0.618) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/7 eq:-0.647 (-0.105)
    Player: 36.12% (G:8.25% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 63.88% (G:22.04% B:1.96%)
    Confidence: ±0.021 (-0.668..-0.626) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a---aE-C---cEa--d-da---AA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 168 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 64
    1. Rollout¹ Bar/15 eq:-0.465
    Player: 40.08% (G:8.09% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 59.92% (G:19.61% B:0.74%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.479..-0.451) - [58.4%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 24/18 eq:-0.467 (-0.003)
    Player: 39.69% (G:7.69% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 60.31% (G:19.74% B:0.59%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.483..-0.452) - [40.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/21 13/7 eq:-0.483 (-0.018)
    Player: 38.85% (G:9.00% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 61.15% (G:18.79% B:1.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.498..-0.468) - [1.6%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    That is quite a variant in the sense that it changes way too much.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Thu Feb 9 08:54:30 2023
    On 2/8/2023 3:06 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    That is quite a variant in the sense that it changes way too much.

    There's no such thing as a standard variant.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Bradley K. Sherman@21:1/5 to tchow12000@yahoo.com on Thu Feb 9 14:06:50 2023
    Timothy Chow <tchow12000@yahoo.com> wrote:
    ...
    There's no such thing as a standard variant.

    In biology it's known as "wild-type", "wild type", "wildtype", or "WT",
    but despite one million biologists waving their hands, defining it is impossible.

    --bks

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Feb 9 11:48:43 2023
    On Thursday, February 9, 2023 at 8:54:33 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 2/8/2023 3:06 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
    That is quite a variant in the sense that it changes way too much.
    There's no such thing as a standard variant.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Ok, yes, there is lol

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)