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  • Lots of good aces to choose from...which do you pick?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Feb 1 08:35:33 2023
    XGID=----aBC-B---bD---dbcc-C--A:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 187 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Feb 1 12:53:14 2023
    On Wednesday, February 1, 2023 at 8:35:35 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=----aBC-B---bD---dbcc-C--A:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 187 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Bar/24: forced
    22/21: forced
    Not hitting, not an option so 5/4*: forced.

    All you have to play is one ace. Seems pretty clear given the entering numbers v. (loose) hitting numbers which ace to play.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 3 10:12:29 2023
    XGID=----aBC-B---bD---dbcc-C--A:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 187 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    Stepping up at least one checker to the edge of O's prime is urgent,
    but should X step up two checkers to the edge of the prime? Not when
    there's a juicy hit to be had, says XG.

    Do we switch points or hit loose? Safe vs. bold criteria suggest the
    loose hit.

    I looked at the variant below to get some sense of what one would do if
    it were possible to hit *or* step up but not both.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 22/21 6/4* eq:-0.252
    Player: 40.37% (G:7.50% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 59.63% (G:28.68% B:1.52%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.263..-0.241) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 22/21 5/4*(2) eq:-0.325 (-0.073)
    Player: 36.69% (G:6.76% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 63.31% (G:26.10% B:1.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.335..-0.315) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/4* eq:-0.344 (-0.093)
    Player: 37.14% (G:6.64% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 62.86% (G:30.06% B:1.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.356..-0.333) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/24 22/21(2) 6/5 eq:-0.347 (-0.095)
    Player: 36.39% (G:6.25% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 63.61% (G:27.82% B:1.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.356..-0.337) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/4* 5/4 eq:-0.369 (-0.117)
    Player: 36.61% (G:6.44% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 63.39% (G:30.98% B:1.55%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.380..-0.358) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7 6/4* eq:-0.370 (-0.119)
    Player: 37.69% (G:6.75% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 62.31% (G:33.49% B:2.12%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.384..-0.357) - [0.0%]

    7. Rollout¹ Bar/23 22/21(2) eq:-0.376 (-0.124)
    Player: 36.15% (G:6.38% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 63.85% (G:30.08% B:0.94%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.386..-0.366) - [0.0%]

    8. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/4* 4/3 eq:-0.393 (-0.141)
    Player: 35.04% (G:6.10% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 64.96% (G:28.60% B:1.38%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.403..-0.383) - [0.0%]

    9. Rollout¹ Bar/23 5/4*(2) eq:-0.417 (-0.166)
    Player: 33.30% (G:5.87% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 66.70% (G:26.70% B:1.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.427..-0.407) - [0.0%]

    10. Rollout¹ Bar/24 22/21(3) eq:-0.428 (-0.176)
    Player: 32.66% (G:5.90% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 67.34% (G:26.76% B:0.73%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.438..-0.418) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=---a-BC-B---bD---dbcc-C--A:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 187 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    1. XG Roller++ Bar/24 22/21(2) 6/5 eq:-0.359
    Player: 35.95% (G:5.89% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 64.05% (G:27.02% B:0.95%)

    2. XG Roller++ Bar/23 22/21(2) eq:-0.394 (-0.035)
    Player: 35.32% (G:5.80% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 64.68% (G:28.86% B:0.80%)

    3. XG Roller++ Bar/24 22/21 6/4 eq:-0.396 (-0.036)
    Player: 36.77% (G:6.00% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 63.23% (G:31.99% B:1.55%)

    4. XG Roller++ Bar/23 22/21 6/5 eq:-0.403 (-0.044)
    Player: 35.49% (G:5.53% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 64.51% (G:29.58% B:1.20%)

    5. XG Roller++ Bar/24 22/21 8/7(2) eq:-0.415 (-0.056)
    Player: 34.74% (G:5.36% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 65.26% (G:28.76% B:1.21%)

    6. XG Roller++ Bar/24 6/3* eq:-0.419 (-0.059)
    Player: 34.52% (G:5.66% B:0.18%)
    Opponent: 65.48% (G:28.39% B:1.27%)

    7. XG Roller++ Bar/24 22/21 5/4(2) eq:-0.427 (-0.067)
    Player: 34.63% (G:5.41% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 65.37% (G:29.53% B:1.29%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Feb 3 09:55:23 2023
    On Friday, February 3, 2023 at 10:12:31 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=----aBC-B---bD---dbcc-C--A:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 187 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11
    Stepping up at least one checker to the edge of O's prime is urgent,
    but should X step up two checkers to the edge of the prime? Not when
    there's a juicy hit to be had, says XG.

    Do we switch points or hit loose? Safe vs. bold criteria suggest the
    loose hit.

    I looked at the variant below to get some sense of what one would do if
    it were possible to hit *or* step up but not both.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 22/21 6/4* eq:-0.252
    Player: 40.37% (G:7.50% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 59.63% (G:28.68% B:1.52%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.263..-0.241) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 22/21 5/4*(2) eq:-0.325 (-0.073)
    Player: 36.69% (G:6.76% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 63.31% (G:26.10% B:1.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.335..-0.315) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/4* eq:-0.344 (-0.093)
    Player: 37.14% (G:6.64% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 62.86% (G:30.06% B:1.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.356..-0.333) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ Bar/24 22/21(2) 6/5 eq:-0.347 (-0.095)
    Player: 36.39% (G:6.25% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 63.61% (G:27.82% B:1.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.356..-0.337) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/4* 5/4 eq:-0.369 (-0.117)
    Player: 36.61% (G:6.44% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 63.39% (G:30.98% B:1.55%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.380..-0.358) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7 6/4* eq:-0.370 (-0.119)
    Player: 37.69% (G:6.75% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 62.31% (G:33.49% B:2.12%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.384..-0.357) - [0.0%]

    7. Rollout¹ Bar/23 22/21(2) eq:-0.376 (-0.124)
    Player: 36.15% (G:6.38% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 63.85% (G:30.08% B:0.94%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.386..-0.366) - [0.0%]

    8. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/4* 4/3 eq:-0.393 (-0.141)
    Player: 35.04% (G:6.10% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 64.96% (G:28.60% B:1.38%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.403..-0.383) - [0.0%]

    9. Rollout¹ Bar/23 5/4*(2) eq:-0.417 (-0.166)
    Player: 33.30% (G:5.87% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 66.70% (G:26.70% B:1.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.427..-0.407) - [0.0%]

    10. Rollout¹ Bar/24 22/21(3) eq:-0.428 (-0.176)
    Player: 32.66% (G:5.90% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 67.34% (G:26.76% B:0.73%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.438..-0.418) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=---a-BC-B---bD---dbcc-C--A:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O X | | X X | | 2 |
    | O X | | X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 187 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11
    1. XG Roller++ Bar/24 22/21(2) 6/5 eq:-0.359
    Player: 35.95% (G:5.89% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 64.05% (G:27.02% B:0.95%)

    2. XG Roller++ Bar/23 22/21(2) eq:-0.394 (-0.035)
    Player: 35.32% (G:5.80% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 64.68% (G:28.86% B:0.80%)

    3. XG Roller++ Bar/24 22/21 6/4 eq:-0.396 (-0.036)
    Player: 36.77% (G:6.00% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 63.23% (G:31.99% B:1.55%)

    4. XG Roller++ Bar/23 22/21 6/5 eq:-0.403 (-0.044)
    Player: 35.49% (G:5.53% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 64.51% (G:29.58% B:1.20%)

    5. XG Roller++ Bar/24 22/21 8/7(2) eq:-0.415 (-0.056)
    Player: 34.74% (G:5.36% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 65.26% (G:28.76% B:1.21%)

    6. XG Roller++ Bar/24 6/3* eq:-0.419 (-0.059)
    Player: 34.52% (G:5.66% B:0.18%)
    Opponent: 65.48% (G:28.39% B:1.27%)

    7. XG Roller++ Bar/24 22/21 5/4(2) eq:-0.427 (-0.067)
    Player: 34.63% (G:5.41% B:0.20%)
    Opponent: 65.37% (G:29.53% B:1.29%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Idk what generic safe v. bold stipulations you use but it definitely should not suggest hitting loose here.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Feb 3 20:45:22 2023
    On 2/1/2023 8:35 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=----aBC-B---bD---dbcc-C--A:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  O |   | O  O     X       |
     | X           O  O |   | O  O     X       |
     | X           O    |   | O  O     X       |
     | X           O    |   |                  |
     |                  | X |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X                | +---+
     | O           X    |   | X  X             | | 2 |
     | O           X    |   | X  X  O          | +---+
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 187  O: 126 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11


    Enter with one ace, of course.

    Then, X doesn't want to be stuck, so step up with 22/21. Then making
    the 21 or the 8 seems reasonable, but I'll hit loose instead. If O hits
    the homeboard blot X stands to make a second anchor with enough timing
    for a viable backgame. If not, X covers often enough to make the gambit
    viable.

    bar/24 22/21 6/4*(2)

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)