On Wednesday, February 1, 2023 at 8:32:42 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=--a-BBBBB--AbB--a-bcbb-Bb-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X O |
| X O | | O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32
X naturally would like to make a six-prime. The pedestrian move here
is 13/11 13/10, but slotting the back of the prime obviously gives X
better chances of making the 9pt. Is it worth the risk? According to
the rollout below, the answer is a resounding yes. The decision would
be much closer if O's checkers on her 1pt were moved to her 3pt (see
variant below).
1. Rollout¹ 13/10 11/9 eq:+0.737
Player: 69.09% (G:13.26% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 30.91% (G:11.35% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.728..+0.746) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:+0.649 (-0.088)
Player: 67.03% (G:12.92% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 32.97% (G:10.09% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.638..+0.660) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.623 (-0.114)
Player: 65.84% (G:13.29% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 34.16% (G:11.54% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.612..+0.634) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=--a-BBBBB--AbB--a-bcbbbB--:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32
1. Rollout¹ 13/10 11/9 eq:+0.417
Player: 60.23% (G:10.57% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 39.77% (G:14.06% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.406..+0.428) - [99.9%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:+0.393 (-0.023)
Player: 58.82% (G:9.98% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 41.18% (G:12.16% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.383..+0.404) - [0.1%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
The variant should have been putting the opp's checker from the 23pt to the 24pt unduplicating aces.
Stick
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