XGID=-a-bCBC-C---aDaaaa-babb---:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | | +---+
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 1:08:23 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-a-bCBC-C---aDaaaa-babb---:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | | +---+
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

The most obvious play to me is making the 9 point.
However, a 4 point board is much better than a 3 point board (duh)
and there might not be many future opportunities to do this.
13/11 offers good containment possibilities for later.

Paul's Play: Make the 4 point board and also do 13/11.
Yes, but what's your actual checkerplay?
I just told you.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-bCBC-C---aDaaaa-babb---:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O O | | O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | | +---+
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 22

This is a good illustration of the heuristic of "clearing from the
rear." X is way ahead in the pip count and is just trying to come
home safely. Making blocking points or home-board points is not a
priority; keeping usable spares and clearing from the rear are more
important. The only really tricky thing about the play is that one
might miss it for psychological reasons, since playing 4 checkers
off the midpoint doesn't come up all that often. I remember that
on BGOnline, John O'Hagan posted a couple of such problems, indicating
that he had a bit of a psychological block at one point in time.

1. Rollout¹ 13/11(4) eq:+0.626
Player: 79.00% (G:13.07% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 21.00% (G:1.88% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.620..+0.632) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/2 4/2 eq:+0.542 (-0.083)
Player: 75.73% (G:13.19% B:0.77%)
Opponent: 24.27% (G:2.96% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.535..+0.550) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/2 eq:+0.530 (-0.096)
Player: 75.51% (G:11.63% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 24.49% (G:2.78% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.523..+0.536) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq:+0.528 (-0.097)
Player: 74.99% (G:13.73% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 25.01% (G:3.12% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.522..+0.535) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) eq:+0.505 (-0.121)
Player: 74.08% (G:14.08% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 25.92% (G:3.55% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.497..+0.513) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)