XGID=-B-BbAB-A--AcD--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/20/2023 8:48 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-B-BbAB-A--AcD--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O    |   | O              X |
 | X           O    |   | O              X |
 | X           O    |   | O                |  | X           O    |   | O                |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X     O  X     X |
 | O  X        X    |   | X  X  O  X     X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 144  O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

Ahead in the race and with the better board, Magriel's criteria point to
safe. So I'll make the five point and safety the blot on the eleven.
Clean up the blots, make a valuable point... should be a reasonable play.

OTOH, escaping with tempo has a lot of merit. Since I hate playing ace
point games, that looks attractive.

But since I'm not sure, I'll make the five point. Five blots strewn all
over the board seems a bit excessive, even with her on the bar.

11/6 8/5.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 1/20/2023 1:44 PM, ah...Clem wrote:

Ahead in the race and with the better board, Magriel's criteria point to safe. So I'll make the five point and safety the blot on the eleven.

Magriel doesn't mention the race. He does mention board strength,
but having the better board points to a bold play.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-B-BbAB-A--AcD--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

While it's true that X can't really blitz O, because O has an advanced
anchor, many factors point to an attacking plan. X has the stronger
board, and his checkers behind O's anchor aren't doing much unless X
hits. O has many productive point-making rolls if she is allowed to
use her full roll, and hitting interferes with that. Also, when your
opponent has an advanced anchor and you're still on the 24pt, you are
usually looking to split.

No variant this time because I wasn't able to find any small
modification that favors not hitting.

1. Rollout¹ 24/16* eq:+0.039
Player: 51.23% (G:15.58% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 48.77% (G:15.23% B:1.08%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.024..+0.054) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq:-0.117 (-0.156)
Player: 47.30% (G:12.11% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 52.70% (G:13.66% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.129..-0.104) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/5 eq:-0.125 (-0.163)
Player: 47.14% (G:11.26% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 52.86% (G:13.63% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.137..-0.112) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, January 22, 2023 at 8:43:49 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-B-BbAB-A--AcD--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53
While it's true that X can't really blitz O, because O has an advanced anchor, many factors point to an attacking plan. X has the stronger
board, and his checkers behind O's anchor aren't doing much unless X
hits. O has many productive point-making rolls if she is allowed to
use her full roll, and hitting interferes with that. Also, when your opponent has an advanced anchor and you're still on the 24pt, you are usually looking to split.

No variant this time because I wasn't able to find any small
modification that favors not hitting.

1. Rollout¹ 24/16* eq:+0.039
Player: 51.23% (G:15.58% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 48.77% (G:15.23% B:1.08%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.024..+0.054) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq:-0.117 (-0.156)
Player: 47.30% (G:12.11% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 52.70% (G:13.66% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.129..-0.104) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/5 eq:-0.125 (-0.163)
Player: 47.14% (G:11.26% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 52.86% (G:13.63% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.137..-0.112) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Move the opp's outfield blot from his 9pt to his 10pt and make the roll [63] or to his 11pt and make the roll [64].

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)