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  • And the DMP play is...?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jan 9 11:10:54 2023
    XGID=-A-AaBBBBB--b----bbdBbb-A-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:1:10

    Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O X |
    | O O | | O X O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 138 O: 115 X-O: 0-0/1
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Jan 9 11:19:59 2023
    On Monday, January 9, 2023 at 11:10:56 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-A-AaBBBBB--b----bbdBbb-A-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:1:10

    Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O X |
    | O O | | O X O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 138 O: 115 X-O: 0-0/1
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    ---
    Tim Chow

    The first three fives are a clear next.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jan 11 08:51:20 2023
    XGID=-A-AaBBBBB--b----bbdBbb-A-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:1:10

    Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O X |
    | O O | | O X O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 138 O: 115 X-O: 0-0/1
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    I opted for making the six-prime, but that play strands the straggler,
    and chances are the six-prime won't last very long.

    1. Rollout¹ 9/4*(2) 8/3(2) eq:+0.112
    Player: 55.60% (G:15.81% B:0.41%)
    Opponent: 44.40% (G:12.26% B:1.30%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.108..+0.116) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/15 9/4*(2) 8/3 eq:+0.095 (-0.017)
    Player: 54.73% (G:17.92% B:1.23%)
    Opponent: 45.27% (G:20.53% B:3.76%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.090..+0.100) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 20/10(2) eq:-0.030 (-0.142)
    Player: 48.51% (G:11.56% B:0.75%)
    Opponent: 51.49% (G:21.98% B:2.84%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.036..-0.024) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-A-AaBCBBB--b----bbdBbb---:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:1:10

    Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O |
    | O O | | O X O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X X X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 115 X-O: 0-0/1
    Cube: 1
    X to play 55

    1. Rollout¹ 20/10(2) eq:+0.551
    Player: 77.55% (G:4.89% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 22.45% (G:1.30% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.548..+0.554) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 9/4*(2) 8/3 6/1 eq:+0.532 (-0.019)
    Player: 76.62% (G:28.03% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 23.38% (G:3.61% B:0.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.529..+0.536) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Jan 11 20:45:05 2023
    On 1/9/2023 11:10 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-A-AaBBBBB--b----bbdBbb-A-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:1:10

    Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             O  O |   | O  X  O  O     X |
     |             O  O |   | O  X  O  O       |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O        X  X  X |   | X  X             |
     | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  O  X     X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 138  O: 115 X-O: 0-0/1
    Cube: 1

    Blitzing seems to win more gammons but the full prime seems to win more
    games. Will it even be right for O to hit the straggler once X makes the
    full prime?

    so 20/10(2) for me at DMP.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)