On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 1:13:06 PM UTC+1,
peps...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 1:11:20 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
On Friday, August 13, 2021 at 4:27:22 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
On 8/12/2021 5:58 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
XGID=-b--B-E-C-A-bB--acAcbb--A-:0:0:-1:00:0:2:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
Score is X:2 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 140 X-O: 2-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
You're right that I probably wouldn't take this, but I don't
think it's an obvious pass. O isn't on the bar and she has
made her 4pt. The trouble is that X's numbers are well
diversified. He has 1's, 2's, and 6's to hit the blot on
his 7pt, and 54 and 63 hit the blot on the 15pt. He also
has the option of hitting the blot on his 1pt with a 5 or
a 43 or 53 (or he could make his 3pt with a 53). Basically
X has no bad rolls. Of course O might roll well in return
(e.g., hitting back) so if it were just a matter of winning
chances, she could take, but O loses uncomfortably many
gammons from here.
Despite you getting my previous quizzes wrong fairly consistently,
your analysis seems perfect, here. It's a marginal pass which is just as you suggest.
It's about 1.025. I'll try to remember to post a rollout this evening.
The pre-rollout analysis was much more marginal -- something like a 1.009 pass, which
enabled my take to emerge unpunished. However, I got an error-ding after doing the rollout.
You are correct that, for a pass, there are a large number of wins for the underdog (31%)
and that it is a pass because the underdog loses many gammons -- 30%.
XGID=-b--B-E-C-A-bB--acAcbb--A-:0:0:-1:00:0:2:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
Score is X:2 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 140 X-O: 2-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 68.98% (G:30.28% B:1.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.02% (G:8.71% B:0.58%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.18% (G:32.82% B:1.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.82% (G:8.93% B:0.64%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.606, Double=+1.266
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.766 (-0.234)
Double/Take: +1.032 (+0.032)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.755..+0.776)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+1.014..+1.051)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 17 hours 48 minutes
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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