On 10/25/2021 3:10 PM, ah...Clem wrote:
1) Seems to me that unstacking the eight point while making the bar is
more thematic than hitting a second checker.
2) And with our runner stuck behind a four prime we need to step up to
the edge while she's occupied getting off the roof.
3) There's probably some consideration about her making a second anchor
which might favor hitting twice, but I'm uncertain about that.
I'll just hit, make the seven point, and step up with the runner. The
twelve point is of limited utility.
XG agrees with your point #1, but one should be viewing O's four points
not as a four-prime to be leaped, but as a four-point board to be feared
(or at least, feared enough not to leave four blots lying around the
board). I was only going to post bot info for two plays, but since you suggested a third play, I've included it as well.
XGID=-a-A-cD-E--BaB---a-cbbb-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X | | X O |
| X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
1. Rollout¹ 13/12*(2) 8/7(2) eq:-0.228
Player: 47.33% (G:10.37% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 52.67% (G:21.43% B:0.91%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.247..-0.210) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/12*(2) 3/1* eq:-0.318 (-0.090)
Player: 45.25% (G:9.51% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 54.75% (G:21.81% B:0.92%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.334..-0.303) - [0.0%]
3. XG Roller++ 24/23 13/12* 8/7(2) eq:-0.643 (-0.415)
Player: 39.75% (G:8.94% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 60.25% (G:31.31% B:2.87%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)