XGID=--B-BAB-Ba-AeC---d-e--A-A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X | +---+
| X O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, December 30, 2022 at 1:45:51 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=--B-BAB-Ba-AeC---d-e--A-A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X | +---+
| X O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

I think we're also looking to win a containment game, as well as the blitzing option.
I don't want to play too lose because a double hit might slow our attack. Clearly our threat to cover the 5 is much more potent than the opponent's threat to hit
it so we leave this one slotted.
I'll hit on the 9 point and play 22-20 to make it difficult for the opponent to play safe.

We need one checker on the 20 point, so that the opponent can't play safely from the midpoint.

22/20 11/9*

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/30/2022 8:45 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--B-BAB-Ba-AeC---d-e--A-A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   | O        X     X | +---+
 | X           O    |   | O                | | 2 |
 | X           O    |   | O                | +---+
 |             O    |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O                |   |                  |
 | O           X    |   | X     X     X    |
 | O  X     O  X    |   | X  X  X     X    |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 141  O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

Making the five point looks nice, but hitting should be stronger. What
to do with the other two aces?

Lifting seems too passive, 8/7 seems too loose, so I'll make the anchor
since O hits often enough for me to want an anchor.

24/22 11/9*

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--B-BAB-Ba-AeC---d-e--A-A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X | +---+
| X O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

In a blitz, it is common practice to leave key points (such as the 5pt) slotted, especially when the opponent has no structure to speak of. The
idea is that there is a big upside to making the point, while getting
hit is not so bad when the opponent has no board.

Here, though, getting hit from the bar loses a tempo, which X might
really wish he had if O runs her straggler into the outfield or if
O exposes a second blot. Playing 5/4 creates a dilly builder, but it's
not terrible as dilly builders go. For comparison, see the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 22/21 11/9* 5/4 eq:+0.265
Player: 61.19% (G:26.71% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 38.81% (G:7.45% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.256..+0.274) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/9* 9/8 5/4 eq:+0.228 (-0.037)
Player: 60.80% (G:23.84% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 39.20% (G:7.33% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.220..+0.237) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/23 11/9* 5/4 eq:+0.209 (-0.056)
Player: 59.93% (G:25.25% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 40.07% (G:7.90% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.199..+0.218) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/9* 6/5(2) eq:+0.202 (-0.063)
Player: 59.76% (G:24.08% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 40.24% (G:7.14% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.193..+0.211) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 11/9* 8/6 eq:+0.185 (-0.080)
Player: 58.49% (G:28.82% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 41.52% (G:9.68% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.175..+0.194) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 24/23 22/21 11/9* eq:+0.173 (-0.092)
Player: 58.60% (G:26.56% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 41.40% (G:9.15% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.164..+0.182) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 11/9* 8/7(2) eq:+0.172 (-0.093)
Player: 58.47% (G:27.29% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 41.53% (G:9.51% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.162..+0.182) - [0.0%]

8. Rollout¹ 24/22 11/9* eq:+0.163 (-0.102)
Player: 58.08% (G:25.70% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 41.92% (G:7.80% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.154..+0.171) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BAB-B-Ba-AeC---d-e--A-A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X | +---+
| X O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 11/9* 8/6 eq:+0.189
Player: 58.96% (G:27.85% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 41.04% (G:9.93% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.179..+0.200) - [97.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/21 11/9* 3/2 eq:+0.175 (-0.014)
Player: 58.91% (G:24.62% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 41.09% (G:7.90% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.166..+0.185) - [2.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/30/2022 2:26 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

Making the five point looks nice, but hitting should be stronger.

It is actually possible to hit *and* make the 5pt.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, January 2, 2023 at 10:10:27 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=--B-BAB-Ba-AeC---d-e--A-A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X | +---+
| X O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11
In a blitz, it is common practice to leave key points (such as the 5pt) slotted, especially when the opponent has no structure to speak of. The
idea is that there is a big upside to making the point, while getting
hit is not so bad when the opponent has no board.

Here, though, getting hit from the bar loses a tempo, which X might
really wish he had if O runs her straggler into the outfield or if
O exposes a second blot. Playing 5/4 creates a dilly builder, but it's
not terrible as dilly builders go. For comparison, see the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 22/21 11/9* 5/4 eq:+0.265
Player: 61.19% (G:26.71% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 38.81% (G:7.45% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.256..+0.274) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/9* 9/8 5/4 eq:+0.228 (-0.037)
Player: 60.80% (G:23.84% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 39.20% (G:7.33% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.220..+0.237) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/23 11/9* 5/4 eq:+0.209 (-0.056)
Player: 59.93% (G:25.25% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 40.07% (G:7.90% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.199..+0.218) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/9* 6/5(2) eq:+0.202 (-0.063)
Player: 59.76% (G:24.08% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 40.24% (G:7.14% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.193..+0.211) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 11/9* 8/6 eq:+0.185 (-0.080)
Player: 58.49% (G:28.82% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 41.52% (G:9.68% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.175..+0.194) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 24/23 22/21 11/9* eq:+0.173 (-0.092)
Player: 58.60% (G:26.56% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 41.40% (G:9.15% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.164..+0.182) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 11/9* 8/7(2) eq:+0.172 (-0.093)
Player: 58.47% (G:27.29% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 41.53% (G:9.51% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.162..+0.182) - [0.0%]

8. Rollout¹ 24/22 11/9* eq:+0.163 (-0.102)
Player: 58.08% (G:25.70% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 41.92% (G:7.80% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.154..+0.171) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BAB-B-Ba-AeC---d-e--A-A-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X | +---+
| X O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11
1. Rollout¹ 11/9* 8/6 eq:+0.189
Player: 58.96% (G:27.85% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 41.04% (G:9.93% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.179..+0.200) - [97.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/21 11/9* 3/2 eq:+0.175 (-0.014)
Player: 58.91% (G:24.62% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 41.09% (G:7.90% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.166..+0.185) - [2.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

When you're in a real/full blitz position as long as the dilly builder still aims at open point(s) it's just dandy and normally worth picking up rather than risk losing the tempo by being hit back from the bar.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)