XGID=aBBaCBB--b-BaA----bbbAbb--:2:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
| O X O | | X X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, December 24, 2022 at 1:13:23 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=aBBaCBB--b-BaA----bbbAbb--:2:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
| O X O | | X X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 31

I feel somewhat confident about this one. I'm very often wrong even when I'm confident
(my record in these quizzes isn't good at all) but I do believe that my degree of confidence is positively
correlated to the probability of me being right.
Owning the cube and able to cash readily, and with the opponent's four point board, I don't think we want to leave a direct shot.
Clearly we must hit so 13/12*. This forces 11/8. Obviously the opponent's 33 will be horrible for us but this < 3% parlay isn't
enough to persuade me to do something else. It would be nice to prevent the opponent anchoring on the 3 point by hitting there,
but this is too risky.
13/12* 11/8 with confidence.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/24/2022 8:13 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBBaCBB--b-BaA----bbbAbb--:2:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X              O |   | O  O  X  O  O    |
 |                O |   | O  O     O  O    |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |       X          | +---+
 |    X     O       |   | X  X  X     X  X | | 4 |
 | O  X     O       |   | X  X  X  O  X  X | +---+
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 96  O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 31

I'll play 13/12* to put two on the roof and then spread em around with
11/8 since only 33 is a joker, and it's a joker regardless of whether we
spread our checkers around or not.

6/3* 4/3 has it's merits, but I like the more gammonish play. 13/12* 4/1
seems unnecessarily cautious.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/24/2022 11:43 AM, ah....Clem wrote:

I'll play 13/12* to put two on the roof and then spread em around with
11/8 since only 33 is a joker, and it's a joker regardless of whether we spread our checkers around or not.

6/3* 4/3 has it's merits, but I like the more gammonish play. 13/12* 4/1 seems unnecessarily cautious.

Just to be sure I understand you...you're saying that you think 13/12*
11/8 is more gammonish than 6/3* 4/3?

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aBBaCBB--b-BaA----bbbAbb--:2:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
| O X O | | X X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 31

The most aggressive move is PoH, 6/3* 4/3, preventing O from
anchoring, while threatening to hit another blot and/or complete
the closeout by covering the 6pt. But is leaving a direct shot
too risky?

According to XG, if X plays 6/3* 4/3 and then O immediately rolls
6x (but not 66), then X still has a strong double (though not a
cash).

By the way, although sometimes the checker play can differ depending
on whether you're playing on or whether the opponent owns the cube,
here XG plays 6/3* 4/3 regardless of cube location.

1. Rollout¹ 6/3* 4/3 eq:+1.416
Player: 82.49% (G:70.18% B:2.21%)
Opponent: 17.51% (G:4.95% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+1.403..+1.430) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/8 4/3* eq:+1.348 (-0.068)
Player: 81.42% (G:70.76% B:2.29%)
Opponent: 18.58% (G:7.17% B:1.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+1.337..+1.360) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/12* 11/8 eq:+1.328 (-0.089)
Player: 81.54% (G:63.33% B:2.03%)
Opponent: 18.46% (G:3.99% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+1.322..+1.333) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/10 4/3* eq:+1.302 (-0.114)
Player: 79.62% (G:65.78% B:1.77%)
Opponent: 20.38% (G:5.85% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+1.290..+1.314) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------------------
After 6/3* 4/3 and 6x
---------------------

XGID=aBBBBBa--b-BaA----bbbAbb-A:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O X O | | O X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 61.98% (G:42.10% B:1.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.02% (G:12.51% B:0.71%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.06% (G:41.83% B:1.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.94% (G:12.23% B:0.66%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.703 (-0.124)
Redouble/Take: +0.827
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.173)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.691..+0.715)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.810..+0.844)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, December 26, 2022 at 1:53:47 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=aBBaCBB--b-BaA----bbbAbb--:2:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
| O X O | | X X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 31
The most aggressive move is PoH, 6/3* 4/3, preventing O from
anchoring, while threatening to hit another blot and/or complete
the closeout by covering the 6pt. But is leaving a direct shot
too risky?

According to XG, if X plays 6/3* 4/3 and then O immediately rolls
6x (but not 66), then X still has a strong double (though not a
cash).

By the way, although sometimes the checker play can differ depending
on whether you're playing on or whether the opponent owns the cube,
here XG plays 6/3* 4/3 regardless of cube location.

1. Rollout¹ 6/3* 4/3 eq:+1.416
Player: 82.49% (G:70.18% B:2.21%)
Opponent: 17.51% (G:4.95% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+1.403..+1.430) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/8 4/3* eq:+1.348 (-0.068)
Player: 81.42% (G:70.76% B:2.29%)
Opponent: 18.58% (G:7.17% B:1.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+1.337..+1.360) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/12* 11/8 eq:+1.328 (-0.089)
Player: 81.54% (G:63.33% B:2.03%)
Opponent: 18.46% (G:3.99% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+1.322..+1.333) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/10 4/3* eq:+1.302 (-0.114)
Player: 79.62% (G:65.78% B:1.77%)
Opponent: 20.38% (G:5.85% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+1.290..+1.314) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------------------
After 6/3* 4/3 and 6x
---------------------

XGID=aBBBBBa--b-BaA----bbbAbb-A:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O X O | | O X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 61.98% (G:42.10% B:1.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.02% (G:12.51% B:0.71%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.06% (G:41.83% B:1.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.94% (G:12.23% B:0.66%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.703 (-0.124)
Redouble/Take: +0.827
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.173)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.691..+0.715)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.810..+0.844)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Good problem.
I suspect that Ah..Clem and I underestimated how good our position is
if we're hit on the 6 point after making the correct play.

You can call me Mr Segue if you want to (but you probably don't).
I have now used the verb "underestimate" which compels me to
make the below joke.

Sports Reporter: "Do you feel that you underestimated your opponents?"
Football Manager: "No, but we didn't think they'd play as well as they did."

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)