Axel Reichert <
mail@axel-reichert.de> writes:
GNU Backgammon Position ID: tncLACCMt5EBMA
Match ID : UQlnAXAAEAAE
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: gnubg
| X O | | O O O O O X | 7 points
| X | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | 11 point match
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X | Rolled 61
| X X X | | X X O | 2 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: axel (Cube: 2)
Pip counts: O 84, X 145
This position was more a psychological problem: Over the board, I first
saw the blot on the bar point, grabbed the back checker and hit. After
all, it cannot be that bad to escape from a five-prime and strengthen
outfield control, especially when behind in the race. As a big fan of backgammon for idiots (paraphrased from Phil Simborg: "hit, else point,
else cover") I did not look elsewhere and did not notice that the
opponent is likely to crash very soon, making an escape much easier and
safer. But after the hit, X gets gammoned in more than 40 % of his
losses.
In hindsight, with a minimal amount of thinking I would have avoided
this 8-times whopper. Time to subscribe to the Zizka Method
https://backgammoncoaching.com/buy-a-book/
? Maybe. For completeness:
Rolled 61:
1. Rollout 11/5 6/5 Eq.: +0.743
0.585 0.075 0.002 - 0.415 0.179 0.018 CL +0.257 CF +0.743
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 6) with variance reduction
658 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 445148145 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: limit 0.0050 (min. 36 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 2 plies:
Play: 1-ply cubeful
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 13/7 6/5 Eq.: +0.036 (-0.707)
0.425 0.046 0.001 - 0.575 0.335 0.055 CL -0.282 CF +0.036
[0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.004]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 6) with variance reduction
964 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 445148145 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: limit 0.0050 (min. 36 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 2 plies:
Play: 1-ply cubeful
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 13/7 11/10 Eq.: -0.038 (-0.781)
0.399 0.042 0.001 - 0.601 0.293 0.035 CL -0.333 CF -0.038
[0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 CL 0.005 CF 0.004]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 6) with variance reduction
837 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 445148145 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: limit 0.0050 (min. 36 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 2 plies:
Play: 1-ply cubeful
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4. Rollout 13/12 13/7 Eq.: -0.081 (-0.824)
0.383 0.042 0.001 - 0.617 0.281 0.031 CL -0.367 CF -0.081
[0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.004]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 6) with variance reduction
754 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 445148145 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: limit 0.0050 (min. 36 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 2 plies:
Play: 1-ply cubeful
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5. Rollout 13/12 11/5 Eq.: -0.110 (-0.853)
0.391 0.041 0.001 - 0.609 0.347 0.054 CL -0.385 CF -0.110
[0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.005 CF 0.003]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 6) with variance reduction
1054 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 445148145 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: limit 0.0050 (min. 36 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 2 plies:
Play: 1-ply cubeful
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
6. Rollout 24/18* 11/10 Eq.: -0.110 (-0.853)
0.366 0.082 0.005 - 0.634 0.451 0.015 CL -0.193 CF -0.110
[0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.005 CF 0.003]
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 6) with variance reduction
1743 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 445148145 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: limit 0.0050 (min. 36 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 2 plies:
Play: 1-ply cubeful
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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