• Which bar point?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 22 09:01:26 2022
    XGID=-bBB-BBA-A--bBa--d-d--bBA-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X | +---+
    | X O | | O O X | | 2 |
    | O | | O | +---+
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Dec 24 08:10:36 2022
    XGID=-bBB-BBA-A--bBa--d-d--bBA-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X | +---+
    | X O | | O O X | | 2 |
    | O | | O | +---+
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 65

    Making our own bar point hems in O's back checkers further, but
    disconnects our position and leaves our own back checkers somewhat
    vulnerable to getting hemmed in. According to the rollout below,
    XG prefers to make our opponent's bar point. But see the variant,
    in which I have upgraded X's 3pt to his 4pt.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/18 23/18 eq:+0.201
    Player: 61.89% (G:22.85% B:1.54%)
    Opponent: 38.11% (G:13.27% B:0.66%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.192..+0.210) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq:+0.130 (-0.070)
    Player: 58.77% (G:22.44% B:1.83%)
    Opponent: 41.23% (G:12.33% B:0.72%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.120..+0.140) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/7 eq:+0.115 (-0.085)
    Player: 59.63% (G:23.02% B:2.07%)
    Opponent: 40.37% (G:15.92% B:1.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.101..+0.130) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-bB-BBBA-A--bBa--d-d--bBA-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X X | +---+
    | X O | | O O X | | 2 |
    | O | | O | +---+
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 146 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 65

    1. Rollout¹ 13/7 9/4 eq:+0.365
    Player: 65.65% (G:26.05% B:2.09%)
    Opponent: 34.35% (G:9.93% B:0.60%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.354..+0.376) - [99.3%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/18 23/18 eq:+0.345 (-0.020)
    Player: 65.75% (G:25.93% B:1.52%)
    Opponent: 34.25% (G:11.37% B:0.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.334..+0.357) - [0.7%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq:+0.324 (-0.041)
    Player: 64.97% (G:25.06% B:2.00%)
    Opponent: 35.03% (G:10.33% B:0.66%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.314..+0.334) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/7 eq:+0.321 (-0.044)
    Player: 64.66% (G:28.15% B:2.46%)
    Opponent: 35.34% (G:13.51% B:1.31%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.310..+0.331) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)