Oh, I meant to add...XG runs even if 5/1 wouldn't break the board
(but of course it's a closer call).

XGID=-DCBBC---------------b-b-A:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 64 O: 12 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 eq:-1.841
Player: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 100.00% (G:75.78% B:8.33%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (-1.841..-1.841) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 5/1 eq:-1.874 (-0.033)
Player: 0.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 99.17% (G:73.19% B:16.14%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-1.875..-1.873) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-ECBBB---------------b-b-A:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | O O O
| | | O O | O O
| | | | O O
| | | | O O
| | X | | O O
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 12 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

The dominant factor turns out to be the backgammon risk.
At gammon save, XG plays bar/24 5/1.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 eq:-1.841
Player: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 100.00% (G:75.79% B:8.33%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (-1.841..-1.841) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 5/1 eq:-1.904 (-0.063)
Player: 0.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 99.68% (G:75.26% B:15.92%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-1.905..-1.903) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-----------
Gammon save
-----------

XGID=-ECBBB---------------b-b-A:0:0:1:41:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | O O O
| | | O O | O O
| | | | O O
| | | | O O
| | X | | O O
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 12 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 5/1 eq:-2.492
Player: 0.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 99.68% (G:74.89% B:18.48%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-2.493..-2.490) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 eq:-2.516 (-0.024)
Player: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 100.00% (G:75.79% B:8.33%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (-2.516..-2.516) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)