XGID=-BBAaBBB--A-bBaa---bbbbbA-:0:0:1:21:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 108 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BBAaBBB--A-bBaa---bbbbbA-:0:0:1:21:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 108 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 21

This problem is of course a lot easier with QF. Over the board,
I suspect that very few players would play the banana split, given
that it's gammon save. But X is in trouble regardless, and this
may be his only chance to put O on the bar against a four-point
board.

1. Rollout¹ 5/3 5/4* eq:-0.843
Player: 37.80% (G:16.81% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 62.20% (G:29.96% B:2.43%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.849..-0.838) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/3 eq:-0.885 (-0.042)
Player: 37.73% (G:16.00% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 62.27% (G:32.00% B:2.28%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.891..-0.879) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/7 eq:-0.944 (-0.101)
Player: 26.51% (G:6.47% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 73.49% (G:23.72% B:1.11%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.949..-0.939) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 1:53:31 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-BBAaBBB--A-bBaa---bbbbbA-:0:0:1:21:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 108 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 21
This problem is of course a lot easier with QF. Over the board,
I suspect that very few players would play the banana split, given
that it's gammon save. But X is in trouble regardless, and this
may be his only chance to put O on the bar against a four-point
board.

1. Rollout¹ 5/3 5/4* eq:-0.843
Player: 37.80% (G:16.81% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 62.20% (G:29.96% B:2.43%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.849..-0.838) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/3 eq:-0.885 (-0.042)
Player: 37.73% (G:16.00% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 62.27% (G:32.00% B:2.28%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.891..-0.879) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/7 eq:-0.944 (-0.101)
Player: 26.51% (G:6.47% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 73.49% (G:23.72% B:1.11%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.949..-0.939) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

It's a great problem. OTB, I'd play 10/7 for sure.
Not sure what I'd play, considering QF. I'd probably
be intellectually honest and pick 10/7 anyway.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-A-B-CCaC---b--Abbbcc-B---:0:0:1:62:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 125 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-A-B-CCaC---b--Abbbcc-B---:0:0:1:62:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 125 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

I just don't see much choice other than 15/7*. Without a 1, X can't
escape so maybe it's not a bad option to get hit and load up the
opponent's home board.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/27/2023 7:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-A-B-CCaC---b--Abbbcc-B---:0:0:1:62:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |       X  O  O  O |   | O  O     X       |  |          O  O  O |   | O  O     X       |  |                  |   | O  O             |  |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |             X    |   | X  X             |  | O           X    |   | X  X     X       |
 | O           X  O |   | X  X     X     X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 123  O: 125 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 62

At a normal match score I'll hit here. I have the three point and she
only has two homeboard points. At GS, how gammonish is it to have a
third checker back when owning the three point anchor? Probably not
very. Four is a different matter and by hitting X exposes two blots
while the safer 15/9 5/3 only exposes 11 shots and no double shots.


So, I'll make that play, figuring that once I've played 15/9, 5/3 is
more flexible.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-A-B-CCaC---b--Abbbcc-B---:0:0:1:62:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 125 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 62

Hitting is the obvious play, and would be the bot play at most scores.
But this is gammon save, and hitting leaves more shots and blots.
Is it worth the risk? XG says, "No way, Jose!" But if we modify the
position by advancing X's anchor, then XG hits even at gammon save.

1. Rollout¹ 15/9 6/4 eq:-0.742
Player: 22.21% (G:2.41% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 77.79% (G:9.33% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.748..-0.737) - [89.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/9 8/6 eq:-0.748 (-0.006)
Player: 21.72% (G:2.26% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 78.28% (G:9.12% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.753..-0.743) - [5.8%]

3. Rollout¹ 15/9 3/1 eq:-0.753 (-0.011)
Player: 21.73% (G:2.30% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 78.27% (G:9.38% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.763..-0.742) - [3.7%]

4. Rollout¹ 15/9 5/3 eq:-0.757 (-0.014)
Player: 21.73% (G:2.32% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 78.27% (G:9.56% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.767..-0.746) - [0.7%]

5. Rollout¹ 15/7* eq:-0.833 (-0.091)
Player: 23.82% (G:4.54% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 76.18% (G:15.47% B:1.09%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.839..-0.827) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-A-B-CCaC---b--AbbbccB----:0:0:1:62:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 125 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 15/7* eq:-0.455
Player: 37.14% (G:9.33% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 62.86% (G:9.89% B:0.86%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.461..-0.449) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/9 6/4 eq:-0.475 (-0.019)
Player: 31.70% (G:2.98% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 68.30% (G:5.43% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.479..-0.470) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 15/9 3/1 eq:-0.478 (-0.023)
Player: 31.50% (G:2.87% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 68.50% (G:5.39% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.482..-0.473) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 15/9 8/6 eq:-0.479 (-0.024)
Player: 31.43% (G:2.60% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 68.57% (G:5.37% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.483..-0.474) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 15/9 5/3 eq:-0.485 (-0.030)
Player: 31.32% (G:2.75% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 68.68% (G:5.56% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.489..-0.480) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----aaEBBAA-bB---d-bc-B-b-:0:0:1:31:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 128 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=----aaEBBAA-bB---d-bc-B-b-:0:0:1:31:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 128 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 31

At a normal score, XG plays 8/5* 6/5 as one might expect, even
though it leaves three blots in the outfield. But 8/5* 6/5 loses
more gammons than I expected, despite X's anchor.

1. Rollout¹ 10/9 6/3 eq:-0.288
Player: 44.90% (G:9.64% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 55.10% (G:9.30% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.294..-0.282) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/7 9/8 eq:-0.361 (-0.073)
Player: 39.70% (G:7.08% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 60.30% (G:7.72% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.366..-0.355) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5* 6/5 eq:-0.364 (-0.076)
Player: 49.62% (G:13.85% B:1.69%)
Opponent: 50.38% (G:17.82% B:2.69%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.371..-0.357) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a----E-C---bFa-bb-e-bA---:0:0:1:43:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| 6 | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 133 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a----E-C---bFa-bb-e-bA---:0:0:1:43:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| 6 | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 133 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 43

For money or DMP, 13/10 13/9 is a perfectly reasonable candidate play,
but it exposes extra blots and loses a lot more gammons.

1. Rollout¹ 22/15 eq:-0.811
Player: 30.95% (G:3.98% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 69.05% (G:21.48% B:0.79%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.817..-0.804) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/9 eq:-0.930 (-0.119)
Player: 33.98% (G:7.69% B:0.77%)
Opponent: 66.02% (G:30.46% B:1.31%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.937..-0.922) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)