XGID=---cCCB-B---bBa---bcbbB--A:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---cCCB-B---bBa---bcbbB--A:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

Here, I would say that it's clear that "strategically," X wants to
break anchor---by which I mean that X is running out of time (if he
doesn't break anchor, he has to break his midpoint anyway) and that
he wants to leap O's prime when he has the chance. The real question
is whether breaking anchor is "tactically" too dangerous---meaning
that it exposes him to such a powerful attack that he has to play an
ugly but safer move.

According to XG, the decision is not close. But see also the variant
below for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 22/17 eq:-0.399
Player: 41.70% (G:13.35% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 58.30% (G:23.75% B:1.41%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.414..-0.383) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/8 eq:-0.541 (-0.142)
Player: 36.78% (G:10.24% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 63.22% (G:18.54% B:0.85%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.556..-0.526) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---cCCB-B---bB--a-bcbbB--A:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/8 eq:-0.481
Player: 38.21% (G:10.87% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 61.79% (G:18.42% B:0.85%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.488..-0.474) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 22/17 eq:-0.496 (-0.015)
Player: 39.09% (G:12.84% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 60.91% (G:25.40% B:1.55%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.503..-0.488) - [0.3%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)