From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Mon Dec 12 09:53:06 2022
XGID=-ABCCaB----B--a--bbbbBcb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54
The fact that 6/2 6/1 covers the blot on the 1pt, which will be valuable
in any future blot-hitting contest, plays a bigger role here than I
expected. See the variant below.
By the way, in the original position above, XG doubles as O after either
11/7 11/6 or 21/12, whereas it does not double after 6/2 6/1. But even
if X already owned the cube, XG would favor 6/2 6/1 by a lot.
1. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:-0.614
Player: 33.30% (G:1.58% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 66.70% (G:8.46% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.622..-0.606) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 11/7 11/6 eq:-0.779 (-0.165)
Player: 28.14% (G:1.69% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 71.86% (G:6.37% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.788..-0.770) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 21/12 eq:-0.780 (-0.166)
Player: 31.95% (G:8.77% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 68.05% (G:20.09% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.792..-0.767) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=--CCCaB----B--a--bbbbBcb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54
1. XG Roller++ 21/12 eq:-0.680
Player: 32.73% (G:5.74% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 67.27% (G:15.79% B:0.36%)
2. XG Roller++ 6/2 6/1 eq:-0.802 (-0.122)
Player: 29.47% (G:1.27% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 70.53% (G:10.11% B:0.25%)
3. XG Roller++ 11/7 11/6 eq:-0.811 (-0.130)
Player: 27.45% (G:1.62% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 72.55% (G:6.25% B:0.18%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)