XGID=-cBBBCB-----dC---cAd-a----:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X O |
| O | | X X X X X O |
| O | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 176 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

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XGID=-cBBBCB-----dC---cAd-a----:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X O |
| O | | X X X X X O |
| O | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 176 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

This position is difficult to assess. XGR++ passes this cube,
but the rollout verdict is ND/T.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 76.43% (G:36.96% B:4.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.57% (G:1.44% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.30% (G:38.92% B:15.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.70% (G:1.54% B:0.13%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.949
Double/Take: +0.906 (-0.042)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.051)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 31.1%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.942..+0.955)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.888..+0.925)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Jacobs & Trice

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 11:28:36 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-cBBBCB-----dC---cAd-a----:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X O |
| O | | X X X X X O |
| O | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 176 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
This position is difficult to assess. XGR++ passes this cube,
but the rollout verdict is ND/T.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 76.43% (G:36.96% B:4.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.57% (G:1.44% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.30% (G:38.92% B:15.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.70% (G:1.54% B:0.13%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.949
Double/Take: +0.906 (-0.042)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.051)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 31.1%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.942..+0.955)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.888..+0.925)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Jacobs & Trice

---
Tim Chow

It's a pass. Your computer probably projectile vomited or something.

Stick

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On 8/19/2021 6:06 AM, J R wrote:

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 11:28:36 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Jacobs & Trice

---
Tim Chow

It's a pass. Your computer probably projectile vomited or something.

Stick

Ah, good catch...thanks. I was trying to help badgolferman diagnose
his MET problem and somehow I ended up leaving myself with the
Jacobs & Trice MET loaded.

---
Tim Chow

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I don't post that many score-based cube actions, but I've
saved up a few interesting ones that I plan to post over the
next few days. Here's the first one.

XGID=bB-BB-B-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 164 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 9/22/2022 8:07 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

I don't post that many score-based cube actions, but I've
saved up a few interesting ones that I plan to post over the
next few days.  Here's the first one.

XGID=bB-BB-B-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   | O              X |
 | X           O    |   | O              X |
 | X           O    |   | O                |  | X           O    |   | O                |  | X                |   | O                |  |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 | O                | O |                  |  | O                |   |                  |
 | O                |   | X     X  X     X |
 | O                |   | X     X  X     X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 141  O: 164 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

O's takepoint is lower than usual due to the score, at about 18%.

X has a formidable four point board , but no other checker in the zone,
but O has only four shakes that enter both so X will most likely have
ten in the zone with a checker on the bar next roll. Which is to say
things are not likely to improve for O right away unless she rolls 22 or
55, and even then X has a commanding lead.

I don't see how O can take this, although I do recall someone saying
that any time you hold both ace points it's a pass which is definitely
an overstatement as applied to this position, but maybe it's enough of a liability for O to eke out a take here.

I'd take a shake. We probably have a cash next roll unless O rolls 55,
if that's right then we can't lose and have some gammon chances so roll.

TG/P.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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XGID=bB-BB-B-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 164 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Though I frequently complain about Stick's DMP rule, there is one
rule that I learned from Stick that I have found to be extremely
useful and reliable. At 3-away/many-away, the 3-away player should
not double in gammonish positions. The reason is that such positions
are usually either too good or not good enough.

Stick says that for the purposes of this rule, "many" should be defined
as 8 or more, with 7 being borderline. My experience is that it is a
reliable rule for 7 or more, with 6 being borderline, but this is
splitting hairs.

I have, however, found that there is one important class of exceptions,
when both of the following conditions are satisfied:

1. The 3-away player wins a lot of gammons but does not lose many
gammons (let's say the 3-away player loses at most 5% gammons).

2. The many-away player is very close to the take/pass borderline.

In such situations, the 3-away player will usually have a big double.

When one tries to apply this rule OTB, the tough part is usually #2,
since it is not easy to assess when the many-away player is close to
the take/pass borderline. I think that the only way to acquire this
ability is through experience. Typically, the many-away player will
win about 25% of the time.

The position here is an excellent illustration of this exceptional case.
This is a highly gammonish position so you might think, following
Stick's rule, that it would not be a double for the 3-away player. But
the rollout says it's a double---the 3-away player loses only about 5%
gammons, and the take/pass decision is what Paul might call "ultra-
marginal."

However, if for example you bring down an extra checker from the
midpoint, you'll find that it slides into TG territory.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.89% (G:52.92% B:1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.11% (G:5.49% B:0.29%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.93% (G:54.68% B:1.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.07% (G:5.86% B:0.56%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.917 (-0.081)
Double/Take: +0.998
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.002)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.911..+0.924)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.987..+1.009)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Stick says that for the purposes of this rule, "many" should be defined
as 8 or more, with 7 being borderline. My experience is that it is a
reliable rule for 7 or more, with 6 being borderline, but this is
splitting hairs.

Tim Chow

Stick has always said 3a 7a or greater is the rule and that it can be used (cautiously) with 3a 6a. I don't ever even remember breathing about 3a 8a specifically.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 9/25/2022 8:14 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

Stick says that for the purposes of this rule, "many" should be defined
as 8 or more, with 7 being borderline. My experience is that it is a
reliable rule for 7 or more, with 6 being borderline, but this is
splitting hairs.

Tim Chow

Stick has always said 3a 7a or greater is the rule and that it can be used (cautiously) with 3a 6a. I don't ever even remember breathing about 3a 8a specifically.

Sorry, I was relying on my memory of your comment at the end of the
BGO article below, where you mention 3a 8a and higher. But now that
I look it up, I see that you say 3a 7a is the rule.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=195914

---
Tim Chow

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XGID=-ABBBBBa-----Ba----cBb--h-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O |
| X | | O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 8 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 63 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-ABBBBBa-----Ba----cBb--h-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O |
| X | | O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 8 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 63 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Stick's rule is not to double at 3-away/many-away in gammonish
positions. The exception that I have learned is that if the 3-away
player *loses* very few gammons, then it can still be a double if
it's close to pass. Here, X indeed loses very few gammons, but it's
not all that close to being a pass. Nevertheless, XG insists on
doubling. So, is this another class of exceptions? It's a rather
unusual position so I hesitate to draw a general conclusion.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.31% (G:26.06% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.69% (G:2.66% B:0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.70% (G:25.23% B:1.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.30% (G:2.59% B:0.15%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.701 (-0.190)
Double/Take: +0.891
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.109)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.692..+0.710)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.878..+0.905)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Tuesday, May 30, 2023 at 8:23:42 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-ABBBBBa-----Ba----cBb--h-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O |
| X | | O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 8 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 63 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Stick's rule is not to double at 3-away/many-away in gammonish
positions. The exception that I have learned is that if the 3-away
player *loses* very few gammons, then it can still be a double if
it's close to pass. Here, X indeed loses very few gammons, but it's
not all that close to being a pass. Nevertheless, XG insists on
doubling. So, is this another class of exceptions? It's a rather
unusual position so I hesitate to draw a general conclusion.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.31% (G:26.06% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.69% (G:2.66% B:0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.70% (G:25.23% B:1.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.30% (G:2.59% B:0.15%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.701 (-0.190)
Double/Take: +0.891
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.109)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.692..+0.710)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.878..+0.905)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

The rule is for 3a 7a or greater. Given that that's where we (I) decided to begin the rule it should be intuitive that there will be more exceptions at 3a 7a than 3a 8a or 3a 9a etc...It's not really surprising to see an exception and like you said, you
can narrow down when they happen and incorporate that into your game. That's what over reaching adages are for, to give the end user a generalized building block that works the vast majority of the time. Hopefully they incorporate it into their game
and realize when the maxim falls short, figure out the why, and add that addendum mentally to your banked knowledge. Constantly building on that you can end up with some cutting axioms. Or, the short version, make the dmp play ;)

Stick

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