XGID=-BCBBbB-B------b---ccBb-c-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51
Before trying to explain this one, see the variant below.
The fact that X has the stronger board and is running out of time
points toward breaking anchor, especially since the alternative
still volunteers a shot. Nevertheless, one still needs to take
into account O's attacking potential. In the variant, I have
moved a dead checker from O's 1pt to her 6pt. Although this of
course increases O's attacking potential, I wouldn't have expected
it to make as much difference as XG says it does.
I'm also not sure why 8/3 2/1 comes out slightly ahead of 8/7 8/3.
Probably one could figure it out by going through all of O's rolls.
But the more interesting question to me is how one could figure out
OTB to break anchor here but not in the variant. I have no good
answer to that.
1. Rollout¹ 21/16 2/1 eq:-0.357
Player: 39.77% (G:8.00% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 60.23% (G:15.63% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.364..-0.350) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/3 2/1 eq:-0.477 (-0.120)
Player: 36.75% (G:5.08% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 63.25% (G:7.83% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.486..-0.468) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/3 eq:-0.492 (-0.134)
Player: 36.58% (G:4.93% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 63.42% (G:8.38% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.501..-0.483) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 8/2 eq:-0.499 (-0.142)
Player: 36.16% (G:4.86% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 63.84% (G:8.32% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.508..-0.491) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-BCBBbB-B------b---dcBb-b-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51
1. Rollout¹ 8/3 2/1 eq:-0.546
Player: 35.43% (G:4.85% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 64.57% (G:10.09% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.556..-0.536) - [99.9%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/2 eq:-0.568 (-0.023)
Player: 34.85% (G:4.68% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 65.15% (G:10.48% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.577..-0.560) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 21/16 2/1 eq:-0.571 (-0.025)
Player: 36.54% (G:8.21% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 63.46% (G:20.53% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.581..-0.561) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/3 eq:-0.571 (-0.026)
Player: 35.31% (G:4.62% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 64.69% (G:10.70% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.580..-0.563) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
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