XGID=-a-aBBD-C---cB-----bbBbbb-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O O |
| X | | O O X O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-aBBD-C---cB-----bbBbbb-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O O |
| X | | O O X O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

O has a very strong board here, so X would prefer to leave no shots,
but that's not an option with this roll. The two candidates 21/15 6/3*
and 13/4 give O the same number of hitting rolls, but naturally, the anchor-breaking play loses more gammons.

I had some trouble finding a meaningful variant. The closest I came
was the position shown below. If you ignore the top play of 8/2 6/4
and just focus on comparing 13/5 with 20/14 5/3*, you'll see that
there is also a win/gammon tradeoff, but in this case, the two plays
are much closer in equity.

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 6/3* eq:+0.131
Player: 54.66% (G:17.72% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 45.34% (G:26.05% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.119..+0.142) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.044 (-0.086)
Player: 50.32% (G:13.64% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 49.68% (G:10.73% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.032..+0.056) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-aBCC-C---cB-----bBbbbb-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O X O O O O |
| X | | O X O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/4 eq:+0.258
Player: 56.07% (G:16.93% B:0.77%)
Opponent: 43.93% (G:12.51% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.244..+0.271) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq:+0.182 (-0.076)
Player: 53.19% (G:15.94% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 46.81% (G:9.60% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.168..+0.196) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/14 5/3* eq:+0.173 (-0.085)
Player: 55.93% (G:18.45% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 44.07% (G:24.91% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.162..+0.183) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)