On 12/6/2022 5:13 AM, BlueDice wrote:
XGID=aBBBBBA-AA---------cdcdB--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
The closest reference position I have is one checker closed out
versus one checker behind a five-prime. There, it's a take unless
the doubler has 20+ spare pips to play with.
Compared to that situation, the situation is both better and worse
in various ways. In X's favor, he is behind just a four-prime,
which is much easier to leap than a five-prime. In O's favor, she
is not yet closed out, and X has very few spare pips to play unless
he escapes a back checker. Also, X has two checkers back rather
than one, although this is not that big a difference since if X
jumps one checker out, he'll gain time to get the other one out.
So we can say this: if X rolls a joker, covering and jumping out,
then it's a huge pass. If X covers but doesn't jump out and doesn't
crack his board, then I think it's probably a pass too, but at most
a close pass. If X rolls something that lets him jump out but not
cover, then I think he's going to lift the blot. That might still
be a take even if O dances, but I'm not sure.
Does X have any anti-jokers? 44 of course, and 41.
Putting all this together, I'd say it's definitely not too good.
I would take but am not sure, and would definitely double.
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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