On Monday, December 5, 2022 at 2:18:29 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-a--bBD-CB---Ba--d-dc-B---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52
Hitting on the ace point seemed strange to me. Since O has an
advanced anchor, we're unlikely to launch a successful attack.
It also doesn't seem that O has strong enough threats to warrant
a tempo hit. I think that one of the main reasons to hit is that
it would be a huge improvement to X's position to be able to
complete a five-prime by making the bar, so we'd like to maximize
builders.
1. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/1* eq:+0.199
Player: 56.00% (G:11.93% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 44.00% (G:12.21% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.192..+0.206) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 8/1* eq:+0.157 (-0.042)
Player: 54.82% (G:12.01% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 45.18% (G:12.76% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.151..+0.164) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout² 13/11 13/8 eq:+0.097 (-0.102)
Player: 53.05% (G:10.59% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 46.95% (G:11.00% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.083..+0.111) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout² 13/6 eq:+0.088 (-0.111)
Player: 52.85% (G:10.76% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 47.15% (G:11.37% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.075..+0.101) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-a--bBD-BB-A-Ba--d-dc-B---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52
1. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/1* eq:+0.221
Player: 56.41% (G:11.64% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 43.59% (G:11.71% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.214..+0.228) - [99.5%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/1* eq:+0.207 (-0.014)
Player: 56.18% (G:11.59% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 43.82% (G:11.87% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.199..+0.215) - [0.5%]
3. Rollout¹ 13/8 11/9 eq:+0.201 (-0.021)
Player: 55.82% (G:10.70% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 44.18% (G:10.40% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.193..+0.208) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/8 eq:+0.197 (-0.024)
Player: 55.72% (G:10.57% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 44.28% (G:10.38% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.191..+0.204) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
I don't know what I would have done if I attempted this.
I really doubt I would have got it correct.
I hit loose on the ace far less than XG does, so a good
if-in-doubt for me would be "If in doubt, hit on the ace point."
But that's just me. Others might hit on the ace point too often.
Re the reasons for hitting on the acepoint, I think Stick is saying that
it prevents the opponent making the 4 point or bar point.
However, your reason seems to be quite different. You seem to be saying
that 6/1* doesn't do much in itself but is just something to do because we can't legally play just the one die, 13/11.
Very easy to resolve this debate (if I'm representing the debate correctly). Simply look at the positions after 13/11 and after 13/11 6/1* and compare the equity differences. I really don't know what we'd find.
Paul
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