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  • Good enough to double?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 28 09:37:35 2022
    XGID=-Ba-BBC-BA--bB-ababb-bb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Nov 28 10:00:01 2022
    On Monday, November 28, 2022 at 2:37:36 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-Ba-BBC-BA--bB-ababb-bb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    There are certainly enough powerful rolls to make this a double.
    QF would lead to this being a pass because of the tricksy wording of the problem.
    But our one checker behind has enough problems escaping to make this a take.

    D/T.

    The problem is that I don't have much in the way of incisive analysis, here. So, even if I'm right (which is questionable), I don't rate my chances of winning
    significant praise like "Good analysis from Paul."
    However, it's kind of a shot-for-nothing because, even if I'm wrong, I doubt that I
    will be insulted too severely.

    D/T.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 30 07:45:14 2022
    XGID=-Ba-BBC-BA--bB-ababb-bb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Paul is right that I often write QF subject lines, but I also like
    to write some anti-QF subject lines, and this is one of them. The
    take is trivial here. I felt that O's priming threat was powerful
    enough that I didn't double. But while it's true that O has good
    winning chances here, X has enough of a blitzing threat here to make
    this a big double according to XG. X has a four-point board and
    twelve checkers in the zone, as well as a lead in the pip count and (potentially) two more outfield blots to pick up.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 58.86% (G:36.61% B:1.01%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 41.14% (G:11.08% B:0.67%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 59.29% (G:37.21% B:0.90%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 40.71% (G:11.28% B:0.70%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.477 (-0.121)
    Double/Take: +0.598
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.402)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.466..+0.488)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.582..+0.613)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Nov 30 13:32:42 2022
    On Wednesday, November 30, 2022 at 12:45:15 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-Ba-BBC-BA--bB-ababb-bb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O O O X |
    | X O O | | O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Paul is right that I often write QF subject lines, but I also like
    to write some anti-QF subject lines, and this is one of them. The
    take is trivial here. I felt that O's priming threat was powerful
    enough that I didn't double. But while it's true that O has good
    winning chances here, X has enough of a blitzing threat here to make
    this a big double according to XG. X has a four-point board and
    twelve checkers in the zone, as well as a lead in the pip count and (potentially) two more outfield blots to pick up.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 58.86% (G:36.61% B:1.01%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 41.14% (G:11.08% B:0.67%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 59.29% (G:37.21% B:0.90%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 40.71% (G:11.28% B:0.70%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.477 (-0.121)
    Double/Take: +0.598
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.402)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.466..+0.488)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.582..+0.613)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    I was right about the play and I was also right that I wouldn't get praised (not for my play anyway).

    Paul

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