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  • Which blot do you hit?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Nov 25 13:21:23 2022
    XGID=-a-a--E-CBA-bB-a-cAeb---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 25 19:05:49 2022
    On 11/25/2022 1:21 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-a--E-CBA-bB-a-cAeb---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X     O     O  X |   | O  O           X |
     | X           O    |   | O  O             |
     |             O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |             X    |   | X                |
     | O        X  X    |   | X                |
     | O     X  X  X    |   | X        O     O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 150  O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    Is it right to hit any?

    Making the four point creates a permanent asset.
    Making the bar point and slotting the five point looks playable too.


    But pointing on her head on the three point looks better. So does making
    the 18 and hitting loose on the three. Making the bar point while xe
    hitting loose on the ace seems to minimize shots, but I don't like
    burying one on the ace. That may well be the bot move.

    I'll go for the poh play, but without much conviction.

    9/3* 8/3.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 28 09:36:26 2022
    XGID=-a-a--E-CBA-bB-a-cAeb---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65

    Ah...clem suggested 9/3* 8/3, which might be gammon go play, but it's
    too loose for most match scores. But ah...clem did catch the "trick"
    in my subject line; maybe X shouldn't hit at all? The main non-hitting
    play to consider is 24/18 10/5, which is nice if it works, but it does volunteer a lot of extra shots. XG favors 24/18 6/1*, which has the
    advantage of minimizing return shots, and may also force that blot
    to move forward. Since X has no board, O would like to stay back for
    more shot-hitting opportunities.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/1* eq:+0.032
    Player: 51.89% (G:11.61% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 48.11% (G:14.34% B:0.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.018..+0.045) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/18 10/5 eq:-0.065 (-0.097)
    Player: 49.04% (G:12.39% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 50.96% (G:15.99% B:0.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.081..-0.049) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/3* eq:-0.103 (-0.135)
    Player: 48.52% (G:12.55% B:0.57%)
    Opponent: 51.48% (G:17.74% B:0.70%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.119..-0.088) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Nov 28 13:49:06 2022
    On Monday, November 28, 2022 at 9:36:27 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-a--E-CBA-bB-a-cAeb---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 150 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 65
    Ah...clem suggested 9/3* 8/3, which might be gammon go play, but it's
    too loose for most match scores. But ah...clem did catch the "trick"
    in my subject line; maybe X shouldn't hit at all? The main non-hitting
    play to consider is 24/18 10/5, which is nice if it works, but it does volunteer a lot of extra shots. XG favors 24/18 6/1*, which has the advantage of minimizing return shots, and may also force that blot
    to move forward. Since X has no board, O would like to stay back for
    more shot-hitting opportunities.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/1* eq:+0.032
    Player: 51.89% (G:11.61% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 48.11% (G:14.34% B:0.50%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.018..+0.045) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/18 10/5 eq:-0.065 (-0.097)
    Player: 49.04% (G:12.39% B:0.54%)
    Opponent: 50.96% (G:15.99% B:0.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.081..-0.049) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/3* eq:-0.103 (-0.135)
    Player: 48.52% (G:12.55% B:0.57%)
    Opponent: 51.48% (G:17.74% B:0.70%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.119..-0.088) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    The plays are essentially tied at gammon go.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)