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  • Thus endeth the blitz

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Nov 24 19:27:53 2022
    When the opponent anchors, the blitz is over, right?

    XGID=bBC-baC-E-AA-----b-bbbb---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O |
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | X | O | |
    | X | O | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X O X X |
    | X X X | | X O O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 87 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 25 18:50:33 2022
    On 11/24/2022 7:27 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    When the opponent anchors, the blitz is over, right?

    XGID=bBC-baC-E-AA-----b-bbbb---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             O    |   | O  O  O  O       |
     |             O    |   | O  O  O  O       |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |             X    | O |                  |
     |             X    | O |                  |
     |             X    |   | X           X    |
     |             X    |   | X     O     X  X |
     |    X  X     X    |   | X  O  O     X  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 87  O: 164 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    Gammons tend to go poof once the opponent anchors, but not necessarily
    when she has five checkers back.

    Hitting is risky, but so is letting her make the second anchor. I've
    been dinged for not hitting in situations like this (but I don't think
    any that really match this) so I'll hit loose here. Then, 8/6 looks more flexible than 11/9.


    10/5* 8/6.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Nov 26 11:17:54 2022
    XGID=bBC-baC-E-AA-----b-bbbb---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O |
    | O | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | X | O | |
    | X | O | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X O X X |
    | X X X | | X O O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 87 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    It's important to note that X is playing on for the gammon here. You
    could argue that X should have cashed; according to XG 3-ply and
    XG 4-ply, it's a play-on, but on higher settings, XG recommends cashing.
    In any case, getting hit back would certainly not allow X to cash any
    time soon, so XG recommends playing safe here despite the ugliness.

    With the cube turned, XG hits with 10/5* 8/6 and says that playing safe
    is a whopper.

    1. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/6 eq:+0.714
    Player: 61.02% (G:38.89% B:0.68%)
    Opponent: 38.98% (G:6.15% B:0.21%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.699..+0.729) - [51.7%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/6 10/8 eq:+0.713
    Player: 60.13% (G:35.57% B:0.40%)
    Opponent: 39.87% (G:6.81% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.698..+0.729) - [48.3%]

    3. Rollout¹ 10/5* 8/6 eq:+0.624 (-0.090)
    Player: 62.91% (G:46.67% B:1.29%)
    Opponent: 37.09% (G:7.61% B:0.28%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.612..+0.635) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 10/5* 5/3 eq:+0.557 (-0.157)
    Player: 60.87% (G:43.97% B:1.05%)
    Opponent: 39.13% (G:9.17% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.544..+0.570) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 11/9 10/5* eq:+0.536 (-0.178)
    Player: 60.54% (G:45.02% B:1.16%)
    Opponent: 39.46% (G:9.61% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.523..+0.549) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -----------
    O owns cube
    -----------

    XGID=bBC-baC-E-AA-----b-bbbb---:1:-1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O O O O | +---+
    | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | X | O | |
    | X | O | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X O X X |
    | X X X | | X O O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 87 O: 164 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 52

    1. Rollout¹ 10/5* 8/6 eq:+0.496
    Player: 62.78% (G:46.74% B:1.36%)
    Opponent: 37.22% (G:7.82% B:0.30%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.486..+0.506) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/9 10/5* eq:+0.425 (-0.072)
    Player: 60.65% (G:45.14% B:1.20%)
    Opponent: 39.35% (G:9.71% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.415..+0.434) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 10/5* 5/3 eq:+0.413 (-0.083)
    Player: 60.95% (G:44.26% B:1.05%)
    Opponent: 39.05% (G:9.22% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.404..+0.423) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/6 eq:+0.385 (-0.111)
    Player: 61.00% (G:38.85% B:0.73%)
    Opponent: 39.00% (G:6.23% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.375..+0.396) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 11/6 10/8 eq:+0.327 (-0.169)
    Player: 59.73% (G:35.55% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 40.27% (G:7.00% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.317..+0.338) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)