On 11/16/2022 4:33 PM, ah...Clem wrote:
I think I want to keep the midpoint. I'd like to leave the runners split
so as to give more escaping rolls, so I guess that leaves either
slotting the five point or hitting loose on the three. Slotting looks
more thematic, so I'll do that.
The reasoning above by ah...Clem is good, but unfortunately he missed a candidate play that satisfies his criteria.
XGID=---a--EbD-A-cBa--b-bbb-BA-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X O | | X | | 2 |
| O X X O | | X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41
1. Rollout¹ 23/22 10/6 eq:-0.521
Player: 28.16% (G:6.41% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 71.84% (G:23.80% B:1.34%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.530..-0.511) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 10/5 eq:-0.622 (-0.101)
Player: 25.34% (G:5.38% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 74.66% (G:26.15% B:1.68%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.632..-0.612) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/3* eq:-0.659 (-0.138)
Player: 25.99% (G:5.64% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 74.01% (G:31.24% B:2.40%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.670..-0.648) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)