XGID=-aaaBBDBB---bB--A-abbbba--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 12:58:07 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-aaaBBDBB---bB--A-abbbba--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

Is this the Stick-and-Tim DMP Rule Show?
The DMP play is surely 16/6.
It's also my play here. Making the deuce point leaves 8 return shots which seems like too many,
considering we can leave zero.
Of course, the safe play wins many fewer gamons but it doesn't eliminate the gammons.
And the gammon/ safety tradeoff leads your present correspondent to 16/6.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 12:45:59 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 12:58:07 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-aaaBBDBB---bB--A-abbbba--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

Is this the Stick-and-Tim DMP Rule Show?
The DMP play is surely 16/6.
It's also my play here. Making the deuce point leaves 8 return shots which seems like too many,
considering we can leave zero.
Of course, the safe play wins many fewer gamons but it doesn't eliminate the gammons.
And the gammon/ safety tradeoff leads your present correspondent to 16/6.

Paul

The opponent's offensive position makes a big difference in these types of positions. I pointed here without hesitation because he has an inner board blot he can't cover while hitting us at the same time. Even on those 8 times we are hit basically half
of the time we come in and potentially punish the opponent again by hitting. (some cleaner than others but worse case scenario is we're hitting with a 4pt board still). If you lift that blot to a normal spot like the opp's 6pt now I'm unhappy about
making a decision.

Is 16/6 the dmp play? Of course it is. Is it clear it's the dmp play? Of course it is. Is it clear that making the two point rakes in a massive amount more gammons than 16/6? Yes. One thing you need to be able to estimate is 'how clear' the play is
at dmp. It doesn't even need be all that precise, something to give you a good chance of making the correct play is all. Since it's clear would you say it's right at dmp by 2%? 3%? 4%? 5%? Even if you picked the top number the net gammon/backgammon
difference would only need to be ~10%.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, October 18, 2021 at 4:56:15 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 12:45:59 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 12:58:07 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-aaaBBDBB---bB--A-abbbba--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

Is this the Stick-and-Tim DMP Rule Show?
The DMP play is surely 16/6.
It's also my play here. Making the deuce point leaves 8 return shots which seems like too many,
considering we can leave zero.
Of course, the safe play wins many fewer gamons but it doesn't eliminate the gammons.
And the gammon/ safety tradeoff leads your present correspondent to 16/6.

Paul

The opponent's offensive position makes a big difference in these types of positions. I pointed here without hesitation because he has an inner board blot he can't cover while hitting us at the same time. Even on those 8 times we are hit basically half

of the time we come in and potentially punish the opponent again by hitting. (some cleaner than others but worse case scenario is we're hitting with a 4pt board still). If you lift that blot to a normal spot like the opp's 6pt now I'm unhappy about
making a decision.

Is 16/6 the dmp play? Of course it is. Is it clear it's the dmp play? Of course it is. Is it clear that making the two point rakes in a massive amount more gammons than 16/6? Yes. One thing you need to be able to estimate is 'how clear' the play is at

dmp. It doesn't even need be all that precise, something to give you a good chance of making the correct play is all. Since it's clear would you say it's right at dmp by 2%? 3%? 4%? 5%? Even if you picked the top number the net gammon/backgammon
difference would only need to be ~10%.

Thanks for your analysis. It seems I was absolutely correct that it was indeed part of the DMP Rule Show, and I'm sure Tim intended it as a counterexample.
Since Tim prefers counterexamples to the DMP Rule rather than validators of it, QF could have led me to the pointing play. But I think it's better to apply my analysis and
understanding from my experience and theory, rather than just going QF all the time.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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Run!

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/18/2021 3:44 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Thanks for your analysis. It seems I was absolutely correct that it was indeed part of the DMP Rule Show, and I'm sure Tim intended it as a counterexample.

There are no counterexamples to Stick's DMP rule.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 3:15:31 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 10/18/2021 3:44 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Thanks for your analysis. It seems I was absolutely correct that it was indeed part of the DMP Rule Show, and I'm sure Tim intended it as a counterexample.

There are no counterexamples to Stick's DMP rule.

---
Tim Chow

If we allowed counterexamples, this would be one.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, October 18, 2021 at 10:15:31 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

On 10/18/2021 3:44 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Thanks for your analysis. It seems I was absolutely correct that it was indeed part of the DMP Rule Show, and I'm sure Tim intended it as a counterexample.

There are no counterexamples to Stick's DMP rule.

---
Tim Chow

Just a lot less than you think there are for players like myself who actively incorporate it and have studied it to the bone.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/19/2021 11:11 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

On Monday, October 18, 2021 at 10:15:31 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

On 10/18/2021 3:44 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Thanks for your analysis. It seems I was absolutely correct that it was indeed part of the DMP Rule Show, and I'm sure Tim intended it as a counterexample.

There are no counterexamples to Stick's DMP rule.

---
Tim Chow

Just a lot less than you think there are for players like myself who actively incorporate it and have studied it to the bone.

So show me a counterexample.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aaaBBDBB---bB--A-abbbba--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

I don't have much to add to the discussion of the position.

As for Stick's DMP rule, my objection has always been that Stick
formulates it in what Karl Popper would call an unfalsifiable way.
He'll make some assertion that is manifestly false, but when you
call him on it, he shifts the goalposts. In the distant past,
Stick was more willing to accept constructive criticism when it
came to reformulating his rules in a more accurate and helpful
manner. For example, in this BGO post from 2011, Stick said that
he appreciates it when people clean up his sloppy wording.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=110559

But that was then, and this is now. You'll note that I wasn't the
first one to bring up Stick's DMP rule in this thread; there's no
point trying to argue against an unfalsifiable claim.

1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.813
Player: 76.21% (G:39.46% B:4.04%)
Opponent: 23.79% (G:5.64% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.805..+0.821) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/6 eq:+0.751 (-0.062)
Player: 80.50% (G:21.80% B:1.13%)
Opponent: 19.50% (G:2.25% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.744..+0.758) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, October 21, 2021 at 3:08:48 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-aaaBBDBB---bB--A-abbbba--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
I don't have much to add to the discussion of the position.

As for Stick's DMP rule, my objection has always been that Stick
formulates it in what Karl Popper would call an unfalsifiable way.
He'll make some assertion that is manifestly false, but when you
call him on it, he shifts the goalposts. In the distant past,
Stick was more willing to accept constructive criticism when it
came to reformulating his rules in a more accurate and helpful
manner. For example, in this BGO post from 2011, Stick said that
he appreciates it when people clean up his sloppy wording.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=110559

But that was then, and this is now. You'll note that I wasn't the
first one to bring up Stick's DMP rule in this thread; there's no
point trying to argue against an unfalsifiable claim.

1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.813
Player: 76.21% (G:39.46% B:4.04%)
Opponent: 23.79% (G:5.64% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.805..+0.821) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/6 eq:+0.751 (-0.062)
Player: 80.50% (G:21.80% B:1.13%)
Opponent: 19.50% (G:2.25% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.744..+0.758) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

I think it's fine if we just call this position an exception to the DMP Rule. All backgammon rules have exceptions after all.
The single most useful rule (to me) is: "Ahead in the race? Race." but that has exceptions, too.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, October 20, 2021 at 10:08:48 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-aaaBBDBB---bB--A-abbbba--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
I don't have much to add to the discussion of the position.

As for Stick's DMP rule, my objection has always been that Stick
formulates it in what Karl Popper would call an unfalsifiable way.
He'll make some assertion that is manifestly false, but when you
call him on it, he shifts the goalposts. In the distant past,
Stick was more willing to accept constructive criticism when it
came to reformulating his rules in a more accurate and helpful
manner. For example, in this BGO post from 2011, Stick said that
he appreciates it when people clean up his sloppy wording.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=110559

But that was then, and this is now. You'll note that I wasn't the
first one to bring up Stick's DMP rule in this thread; there's no
point trying to argue against an unfalsifiable claim.

1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/2 eq:+0.813
Player: 76.21% (G:39.46% B:4.04%)
Opponent: 23.79% (G:5.64% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.805..+0.821) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/6 eq:+0.751 (-0.062)
Player: 80.50% (G:21.80% B:1.13%)
Opponent: 19.50% (G:2.25% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.744..+0.758) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

It has been 10 years since I said that. I still appreciate if someone cleans up the wording of something it's just ... it has been ten years since I said that ...so the wording to most everything has already been cleaned up. Different players will have
different exceptions to the rule but to call something an exception for starters you actually have to be a player who actively tries to use the rule. I don't believe you do. I do and this is not an exception to me as many of your examples aren't.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/21/2021 10:03 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

It has been 10 years since I said that. I still appreciate if someone cleans up the wording of something it's just ... it has been ten years since I said that ...so the wording to most everything has already been cleaned up. Different players will

have different exceptions to the rule but to call something an exception for starters you actually have to be a player who actively tries to use the rule. I don't believe you do. I do and this is not an exception to me as many of your examples aren't.

Please show me a counterexample to your rule.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, October 21, 2021 at 10:23:13 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

On 10/21/2021 10:03 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

It has been 10 years since I said that. I still appreciate if someone cleans up the wording of something it's just ... it has been ten years since I said that ...so the wording to most everything has already been cleaned up. Different players will

have different exceptions to the rule but to call something an exception for starters you actually have to be a player who actively tries to use the rule. I don't believe you do. I do and this is not an exception to me as many of your examples aren't.

Please show me a counterexample to your rule.

---
Tim Chow

The next time it comes up I will. I don't *do* backgammon anymore.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, October 22, 2021 at 3:35:19 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Thursday, October 21, 2021 at 10:23:13 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

On 10/21/2021 10:03 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

It has been 10 years since I said that. I still appreciate if someone cleans up the wording of something it's just ... it has been ten years since I said that ...so the wording to most everything has already been cleaned up. Different players will

have different exceptions to the rule but to call something an exception for starters you actually have to be a player who actively tries to use the rule. I don't believe you do. I do and this is not an exception to me as many of your examples aren't.

Please show me a counterexample to your rule.

---
Tim Chow

The next time it comes up I will. I don't *do* backgammon anymore.

You're a full time poker pro?

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, October 22, 2021 at 5:59:02 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, October 22, 2021 at 3:35:19 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Thursday, October 21, 2021 at 10:23:13 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

On 10/21/2021 10:03 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

It has been 10 years since I said that. I still appreciate if someone cleans up the wording of something it's just ... it has been ten years since I said that ...so the wording to most everything has already been cleaned up. Different players

will have different exceptions to the rule but to call something an exception for starters you actually have to be a player who actively tries to use the rule. I don't believe you do. I do and this is not an exception to me as many of your examples aren'
t.

Please show me a counterexample to your rule.

---
Tim Chow

The next time it comes up I will. I don't *do* backgammon anymore.

You're a full time poker pro?

Paul

No, I don't poker anymore either.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On October 22, 2021 at 10:42:31 AM UTC-6, Stick Rice wrote:

The next time it comes up I will. I don't *do* backgammon anymore.

You're a full time poker pro?

No, I don't poker anymore either.

I hope this means that you are now a recovered gambler and have a
better life and not that you moved on to more time efficient forms
of gambling like cutting cards or tossing coins for bigger stakes...

MK

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, October 22, 2021 at 5:42:31 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, October 22, 2021 at 5:59:02 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, October 22, 2021 at 3:35:19 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Thursday, October 21, 2021 at 10:23:13 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

On 10/21/2021 10:03 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

It has been 10 years since I said that. I still appreciate if someone cleans up the wording of something it's just ... it has been ten years since I said that ...so the wording to most everything has already been cleaned up. Different players

will have different exceptions to the rule but to call something an exception for starters you actually have to be a player who actively tries to use the rule. I don't believe you do. I do and this is not an exception to me as many of your examples aren'
t.

Please show me a counterexample to your rule.

---
Tim Chow

The next time it comes up I will. I don't *do* backgammon anymore.

You're a full time poker pro?

Paul

No, I don't poker anymore either.

Stick

Can you give a clue as to what you do by answering in French while also rearranging the letters?
Thanks,

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, October 22, 2021 at 9:41:52 PM UTC+1, MK wrote:

On October 22, 2021 at 10:42:31 AM UTC-6, Stick Rice wrote:

The next time it comes up I will. I don't *do* backgammon anymore.

You're a full time poker pro?

No, I don't poker anymore either.

I hope this means that you are now a recovered gambler and have a
better life and not that you moved on to more time efficient forms
of gambling like cutting cards or tossing coins for bigger stakes...

MK

I'd bet he's still a gambler. Maybe sports betting is his new line of work?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/17/2021 7:58 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-aaaBBDBB---bB--A-abbbba--:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        X     O |   | O  O  O  O  O    | +---+
 | X                |   | O  O  O  O       | | 2 |  |                  |   |                  | +---+
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O           X  X |   | X  X  X          |
 | O           X  X |   | X  X  X  O  O  O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 114  O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

Attacking should win more gammons, while running seems to win more
games. Or maybe running wins more gammons because it wins more games.
I'd keep the five prime and run the back checker.

Now, off to read the rest of the thread.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aaB-BBBC--Ab----d-dcC----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aaB-BBBC--Ab----d-dcC----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55

This is the sort of position where Stick would say, "don't worry
about estimating gammons and just make the DMP play #simplegame."
In the variant below, however, Stick would say that the blitzing
play wins so many extra gammons that it constitutes an obvious
exception.

1. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 11/6 eq:+0.648
Player: 77.55% (G:20.23% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 22.45% (G:3.88% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.642..+0.655) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 21/11 eq:+0.632 (-0.017)
Player: 77.25% (G:19.44% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 22.75% (G:3.92% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.625..+0.638) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/2*(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.595 (-0.054)
Player: 68.11% (G:42.77% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 31.89% (G:7.45% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.587..+0.603) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds

4. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 7/2*(2) eq:+0.537 (-0.111)
Player: 70.31% (G:30.19% B:1.12%)
Opponent: 29.69% (G:7.11% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.529..+0.545) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 8/3 eq:+0.534 (-0.115)
Player: 73.88% (G:18.79% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 26.12% (G:5.06% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.527..+0.541) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 21/16 11/6 7/2*(2) eq:+0.517 (-0.131)
Player: 68.32% (G:33.47% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 31.68% (G:6.55% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.509..+0.525) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 21/11 7/2*(2) eq:+0.516 (-0.132)
Player: 69.18% (G:30.93% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 30.82% (G:6.26% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.509..+0.524) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aaB-BBBBA-Ab----d-dcC----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 7/2*(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.724
Player: 71.01% (G:48.34% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 28.99% (G:6.96% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.717..+0.732) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 21/11 eq:+0.594 (-0.130)
Player: 76.09% (G:18.86% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 23.91% (G:4.51% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.587..+0.601) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 11/6 eq:+0.590 (-0.135)
Player: 75.86% (G:19.45% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 24.14% (G:4.78% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.583..+0.597) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/1* 7/2*(2) eq:+0.579 (-0.145)
Player: 67.94% (G:42.56% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 32.06% (G:7.95% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.571..+0.588) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, February 4, 2022 at 8:35:00 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=-aaB-BBBC--Ab----d-dcC----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55
This is the sort of position where Stick would say, "don't worry
about estimating gammons and just make the DMP play #simplegame."
In the variant below, however, Stick would say that the blitzing
play wins so many extra gammons that it constitutes an obvious
exception.

1. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 11/6 eq:+0.648
Player: 77.55% (G:20.23% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 22.45% (G:3.88% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.642..+0.655) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 21/11 eq:+0.632 (-0.017)
Player: 77.25% (G:19.44% B:0.69%)
Opponent: 22.75% (G:3.92% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.625..+0.638) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/2*(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.595 (-0.054)
Player: 68.11% (G:42.77% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 31.89% (G:7.45% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.587..+0.603) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds

4. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 7/2*(2) eq:+0.537 (-0.111)
Player: 70.31% (G:30.19% B:1.12%)
Opponent: 29.69% (G:7.11% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.529..+0.545) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 8/3 eq:+0.534 (-0.115)
Player: 73.88% (G:18.79% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 26.12% (G:5.06% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.527..+0.541) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 21/16 11/6 7/2*(2) eq:+0.517 (-0.131)
Player: 68.32% (G:33.47% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 31.68% (G:6.55% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.509..+0.525) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 21/11 7/2*(2) eq:+0.516 (-0.132)
Player: 69.18% (G:30.93% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 30.82% (G:6.26% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.509..+0.524) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aaB-BBBBA-Ab----d-dcC----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55
1. Rollout¹ 7/2*(2) 6/1*(2) eq:+0.724
Player: 71.01% (G:48.34% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 28.99% (G:6.96% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.717..+0.732) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 21/11 eq:+0.594 (-0.130)
Player: 76.09% (G:18.86% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 23.91% (G:4.51% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.587..+0.601) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/16(3) 11/6 eq:+0.590 (-0.135)
Player: 75.86% (G:19.45% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 24.14% (G:4.78% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.583..+0.597) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/1* 7/2*(2) eq:+0.579 (-0.145)
Player: 67.94% (G:42.56% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 32.06% (G:7.95% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.571..+0.588) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Knowing what I'd say and what I'd play all the time you really should be a better player. In your variant you've nearly halved the dmp wins.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 2/4/2022 3:42 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

In your variant you've nearly halved the dmp wins.

As is obvious to everyone OTB.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-B-CCB----cB---d-dBc--A-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a-B-CCB----cB---d-dBc--A-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

There are some similarities between this problem and the previous
problem "Attack or prime?" X wants to contain O's straggler, and
hitting is one strategy. But the 1pt and the bar point can't be
part of the same six-prime. Even if O dances, XG says it's not yet
a double. X already has a start on a pretty good prime; filling in
the 4pt before O escapes would be huge, and the spares on the 5pt
and 6pt can potentially help with that. The alternative play of
24/15 provides outfield coverage if O jumps out.

Nevertheless, the decision is still a delicate one, as the variant
below illustrates.

1. Rollout¹ 24/15 eq:+0.496
Player: 62.35% (G:15.83% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 37.65% (G:6.74% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.485..+0.507) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/1 eq:+0.395 (-0.102)
Player: 56.97% (G:23.27% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 43.03% (G:7.16% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.382..+0.407) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-B-CCB----dB---d-dBb--A-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O X O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/1 eq:+0.615
Player: 60.76% (G:27.21% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 39.24% (G:6.26% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.600..+0.630) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/15 eq:+0.575 (-0.040)
Player: 63.19% (G:18.51% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 36.81% (G:6.07% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.561..+0.590) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aCCCB-B----b----Babc-cc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/30/2022 8:07 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--aCCCB-B----b----Babc-cc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | O              X |   | O  O  O     O  O | +---+
 | O              X |   |    O  O     O  O | | 2 |  |                  |   |       O     O  O | +---+
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |    X  X  X       |  |             X    |   | X  X  X  X       |  |             X    |   | X  X  X  X  O    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 100  O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

Running dupes 5s to hit or escape, but unless she rolls 51 or 55 we're
still ok either way, and the other numbers play well. We have lots of counterplay after an exchange of hits except for a roll of 62.

Both look sound. If there is an exchange of hits, or if this goes on for
a few rolls I think I prefer having the eight point over a crunched
board, so I'll run.

18/10.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--aCCCB-B----b----Babc-cc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

In the past, I have been repeated dinged by XG for not hitting loose
when I have a four-point board and the opponent's board is weaker
than mine. So I went for 8/3 5/2* here. However, the rollout does
not like it. Ah_clem noted that 18/10 duplicates 5's, which is
part of the story (see Variant 2 below, where if you ignore the new
top play of 18/13 5/2*, you'll see that 8/3 5/2* comes out ahead of
18/10). But even a seemingly small change like moving X's spare
from his 3pt to his 4pt changes the relative equities a lot (see
Variant 1 below).

1. Rollout¹ 18/10 eq:+0.362
Player: 68.53% (G:11.77% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 31.47% (G:3.10% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.356..+0.367) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/2* eq:+0.282 (-0.080)
Player: 67.26% (G:13.29% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 32.74% (G:10.01% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.276..+0.289) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=--aBDCB-B----b----Babc-cc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X | | O O O O O | +---+
| O X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/2* eq:+0.290
Player: 67.54% (G:13.45% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 32.46% (G:10.00% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.287..+0.293) - [53.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/10 eq:+0.290
Player: 66.04% (G:11.11% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 33.96% (G:3.36% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.287..+0.293) - [46.1%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=--aCCCB-B---b-----Babc-cc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 100 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 18/13 5/2* eq:+0.503
Player: 74.03% (G:19.42% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 25.97% (G:9.61% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.497..+0.509) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/2* eq:+0.414 (-0.089)
Player: 70.82% (G:16.53% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 29.18% (G:8.29% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.407..+0.420) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/10 eq:+0.372 (-0.130)
Player: 67.78% (G:15.92% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 32.22% (G:3.88% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.367..+0.377) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=a--aBBD-BA-AbB-----dbc-bA-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O X | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, May 4, 2023 at 5:45:50 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=a--aBBD-BA-AbB-----dbc-bA-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O X | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Clearly running is the wrong idea but ignoring that, what might make for an interesting question would be if we're going to "run", which running play would be correct? This has practical implications as sometimes in a chouette you can't convince them to
make your play so you have to switch gears and try to get them to make the best worst play.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=a--aBBD-BA-AbB-----dbc-bA-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O X | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

The running play does not escape cleanly, and even at DMP, XG favors
attacking. The tradeoff is much more delicate in the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 11/7 9/3* eq:+0.343
Player: 65.94% (G:29.39% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 34.06% (G:15.32% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.334..+0.351) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 9/5 eq:+0.216 (-0.127)
Player: 64.78% (G:15.87% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 35.22% (G:11.21% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.209..+0.223) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/9 eq:+0.215 (-0.128)
Player: 65.54% (G:16.21% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 34.46% (G:13.50% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.205..+0.224) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/3* eq:+0.214 (-0.129)
Player: 62.47% (G:28.75% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 37.53% (G:19.42% B:3.51%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.205..+0.223) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:+0.189 (-0.154)
Player: 64.23% (G:15.12% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 35.77% (G:14.79% B:0.79%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.181..+0.196) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
DMP
---

XGID=a--aBBD-BA-AbB-----dbc-bA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:1:10

Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 123 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 11/7 9/3* eq:+0.330
Player: 66.48% (G:27.07% B:2.54%)
Opponent: 33.52% (G:15.21% B:2.32%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.325..+0.334) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/9

XGID=-a----E-D--adE--ab-d---b-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a----E-D--adE--ab-d---b-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

It's tempting to attack here, especially since O has two other blots to
pick up, but XG favors the "just win" strategy of running. Notice that
if you do attack with 6/1*(2), XG recommends that your final 5 be 13/8
rather than 20/15. The stack of 5 checkers on the 8pt may look ugly,
but 20/15 gives up on trying to hit O's checker on her 9pt.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/10 13/8 eq:+0.318
Player: 59.19% (G:7.00% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 40.81% (G:6.76% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.308..+0.329) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.263 (-0.056)
Player: 55.66% (G:16.12% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 44.34% (G:11.17% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.252..+0.274) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/15 6/1*(2) eq:+0.220 (-0.098)
Player: 55.46% (G:11.01% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 44.54% (G:9.57% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.211..+0.230) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

1 Kasım 2023 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 16:41:00 UTC+3 itibarıyla Timothy Chow şunları yazdı:

XGID=-a----E-D--adE--ab-d---b-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55
It's tempting to attack here, especially since O has two other blots to
pick up, but XG favors the "just win" strategy of running. Notice that
if you do attack with 6/1*(2), XG recommends that your final 5 be 13/8 rather than 20/15. The stack of 5 checkers on the 8pt may look ugly,
but 20/15 gives up on trying to hit O's checker on her 9pt.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/10 13/8 eq:+0.318
Player: 59.19% (G:7.00% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 40.81% (G:6.76% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.308..+0.329) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.263 (-0.056)
Player: 55.66% (G:16.12% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 44.34% (G:11.17% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.252..+0.274) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/15 6/1*(2) eq:+0.220 (-0.098)
Player: 55.46% (G:11.01% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 44.54% (G:9.57% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.211..+0.230) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

How should we explain that the move that decreases the single game win percentage by 3.53 but increases the backgammon win percentage by 9.12 is not preferred here?
The jacoby rule is not marked in the position.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, November 2, 2023 at 6:57:55 AM UTC-4, atila...@gmail.com wrote:

1 Kasım 2023 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 16:41:00 UTC+3 itibarıyla Timothy Chow şunları yazdı:

XGID=-a----E-D--adE--ab-d---b-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55
It's tempting to attack here, especially since O has two other blots to pick up, but XG favors the "just win" strategy of running. Notice that
if you do attack with 6/1*(2), XG recommends that your final 5 be 13/8 rather than 20/15. The stack of 5 checkers on the 8pt may look ugly,
but 20/15 gives up on trying to hit O's checker on her 9pt.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/10 13/8 eq:+0.318
Player: 59.19% (G:7.00% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 40.81% (G:6.76% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.308..+0.329) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.263 (-0.056)
Player: 55.66% (G:16.12% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 44.34% (G:11.17% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.252..+0.274) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/15 6/1*(2) eq:+0.220 (-0.098)
Player: 55.46% (G:11.01% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 44.54% (G:9.57% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.211..+0.230) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

How should we explain that the move that decreases the single game win percentage by 3.53 but increases the backgammon win percentage by 9.12 is not preferred here?
The jacoby rule is not marked in the position.

You meant the gammon percentage and not backgammon percentage. And we'd explain it with cube efficiency. The Jacoby Rule doesn't come into play often where we would send an initial cube with Jacoby toggled on and we wouldn't with it off.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/7/2023 3:18 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

On Thursday, November 2, 2023 at 6:57:55 AM UTC-4, atila...@gmail.com wrote:

1 Kasım 2023 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 16:41:00 UTC+3 itibarıyla Timothy Chow şunları yazdı:

XGID=-a----E-D--adE--ab-d---b-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55
It's tempting to attack here, especially since O has two other blots to
pick up, but XG favors the "just win" strategy of running. Notice that
if you do attack with 6/1*(2), XG recommends that your final 5 be 13/8
rather than 20/15. The stack of 5 checkers on the 8pt may look ugly,
but 20/15 gives up on trying to hit O's checker on her 9pt.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/10 13/8 eq:+0.318
Player: 59.19% (G:7.00% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 40.81% (G:6.76% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.308..+0.329) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.263 (-0.056)
Player: 55.66% (G:16.12% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 44.34% (G:11.17% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.252..+0.274) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/15 6/1*(2) eq:+0.220 (-0.098)
Player: 55.46% (G:11.01% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 44.54% (G:9.57% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.211..+0.230) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

How should we explain that the move that decreases the single game win percentage by 3.53 but increases the backgammon win percentage by 9.12 is not preferred here?
The jacoby rule is not marked in the position.

You meant the gammon percentage and not backgammon percentage. And we'd explain it with cube efficiency. The Jacoby Rule doesn't come into play often where we would send an initial cube with Jacoby toggled on and we wouldn't with it off.

For some reason, my news server didn't show me atila...'s message.

Anyway, in this particular case, I think there's a simpler explanation. Although (pseudocubeless) gammon *wins* go up from 7.00% to 16.12%, (pseudocubeless) gammon *losses* also go up from 6.76% to 11.17%, so
the *net* increase is less than 5%, which is less than twice 3.53%.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)