XGID=----BbD-C---cCAaa--bb-bBb-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10Yes, break the anchor to hit. It's a good opportunity to attempt partially escaping from the low anchor and freeing your game.
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O X O |
| X | | O O O X O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61
---
Tim Chow
XGID=-a-aB-E-B---cD---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10X is ahead in the race and hitting while running is a good reason to break an anchor. Of course, the reasonable move after 21/17* is 17/16.
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
---
Tim Chow
XGID=-a-aB-E-B---cD---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
Even after studying this position for a while, I find the tradeoff
difficult to judge. Hitting still looks to me like the clear DMP
play, and in fact XG 3-ply hits at DMP, but according to XG the plays
are close at DMP. If you can see this then certainly you won't risk
all those gammon losses by breaking anchor for money.
But see the variant below, where hitting is the clear DMP play
according to XG.
1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:-0.006
Player: 48.98% (G:11.58% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 51.02% (G:9.77% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.018..+0.006) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/17* 17/16 eq:-0.102 (-0.095)
Player: 48.61% (G:14.00% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 51.39% (G:19.18% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.116..-0.087) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-a-aB-E-C---cC---abcbBb---:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41
1. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.001
Player: 49.35% (G:12.14% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 50.65% (G:10.32% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.005..+0.007) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/17* 17/16 eq:-0.018 (-0.019)
Player: 50.28% (G:15.25% B:1.01%)
Opponent: 49.72% (G:17.62% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.026..-0.009) - [0.0%]
¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
In the original position it's correct to play safe at dmp by over 1% (.025) and you call an amount less than that 'clear' in your variant?
Also, in the variant hitting is only correct by about half a percent (.010) at dmp.
You can't use money rollouts to support dmp figures.
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