• Break the anchor or break the board?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 7 08:29:13 2022
    XGID=--CBbBB-BB---a---c-bBcb-b-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | O | | O X O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X O X X |
    | X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 108 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 9 09:55:15 2022
    XGID=--CBbBB-BB---a---c-bBcb-b-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | O | | O X O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X O X X |
    | X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 108 O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    I hate breaking my board, but the rollout below suggests that maybe I
    should dial back that hatred a bit. See also the variant below, which
    features duplication of 3's.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/1 eq:+0.058
    Player: 52.03% (G:6.59% B:0.18%)
    Opponent: 47.97% (G:9.69% B:0.25%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.049..+0.067) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 20/14 eq:-0.035 (-0.093)
    Player: 50.78% (G:8.03% B:0.33%)
    Opponent: 49.22% (G:15.29% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.044..-0.025) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 6/1 2/1 eq:-0.068 (-0.126)
    Player: 48.56% (G:8.66% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 51.44% (G:10.31% B:0.23%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.078..-0.059) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--CBbBB-BB-a-----c-bBcb-b-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O | | O X O O O |
    | O | | O X O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X X | | X X O X X |
    | O X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 108 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51

    1. Rollout¹ 20/14 eq:+0.100
    Player: 54.38% (G:7.83% B:0.28%)
    Opponent: 45.62% (G:12.79% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.087..+0.112) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/1 eq:+0.059 (-0.041)
    Player: 52.08% (G:6.68% B:0.18%)
    Opponent: 47.92% (G:9.50% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.050..+0.069) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Nov 11 16:50:45 2022
    On 11/7/2022 8:29 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--CBbBB-BB---a---c-bBcb-b-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | O           O    |   | O  X  O  O     O |  |             O    |   | O  X  O  O     O |  |             O    |   |       O          |  |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |             X    |
     |          X  X    |   | X  X  O  X  X    |  |          X  X    |   | X  X  O  X  X    |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 108  O: 110 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 51


    I'll keep the blockade. If missed X is in very good shape. If not, O
    still has a lot of work to do to get her runners home. 20/14.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)