XGID=aBBa--Db--BAbA---bBcbAb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X O |
| O X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 7:44:15 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=aBBa--Db--BAbA---bBcbAb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X O |
| O X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

It's not a blitz cube however it is a blitz position.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=aBBa--Db--BAbA---bBcbAb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X O |
| O X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 159 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Eleven checkers in the zone, a three-point board, a 20+ pip lead,
and the back checkers mostly escaped---these factors would often
be enough to justify a double. But O has a strong board, and has
a good chance of anchoring and ending the blitz. According to the
rollout below, it's not a double yet, despite the high gammon win rate.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 54.16% (G:31.29% B:0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.84% (G:16.24% B:0.97%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.52% (G:31.45% B:0.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.48% (G:16.34% B:1.01%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.308
Double/Take: +0.123 (-0.185)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.692)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.1%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.294..+0.321)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+0.101..+0.144)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 11/6/2022 7:44 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBBa--Db--BAbA---bBcbAb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O  X |   | O  O  X  O       |  |             O  X |   | O  O     O       |  |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  | O |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O     X        O |   | X           X  X |
 | O  X  X        O |   | X        O  X  X |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 131  O: 159 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Yeah, this looks like a blitz, or like it could be. Only a single direct
shot at the blot, so not as overwhelming as they are sometimes. Only 33
points on O's head, and the numbers that hit loose offer a bit of
counterplay, as does the three blots strewn around the board.

Take seems clear. What are the market losers? Making a fourth homeboard
point followed by a dance, but that appears shy of the 25% usually
needed. So I'll hold this one.

ND/T.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)