On 10/30/2022 8:49 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--aaC-C-C-B-cB---c-cbBb---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   | O  O  X  O       |
 | X           O    |   | O  O  X  O       |
 |             O    |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O           X    |   | X     X          |
 | O     X     X    |   | X     X          |
 | O     X     X    |   | X     X  O  O    |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 142  O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

Bar point does a better job of containment while making the five point
strips all the points. Yeah, 7s and 8s hit the ensuing blot on the ten
point, but it might be better to pay now for the additional flexibility.

I'd probably make the five OTB, since "when in doubt" but I'll say make
the bar here.



--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

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XGID=--aaC-C-C-B-cB---c-cbBb---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

I didn't roll out 10/7 8/7; compared to 8/5 6/5, it makes an inferior
point and creates a blot, so it can't be better. The real choice is
between 8/5 6/5 and 6/3* 4/3. Of course the 3pt is inferior to the 5pt
but 6/3* 4/3 has the advantage of being a PoH play. The rollout below
puts 6/3* 4/3 clearly ahead of 8/5 6/5.

In their book on playing 31 in the opening, Ballard and Weaver have a
section about hitting on the 3rd roll. Since making the 5pt is often
an option with a roll of 31, there are several "hit or make the 5pt?"
positions in the book. This can be a subtle choice, but if you can
hit without creating any weaknesses, this often trumps making the 5pt
without hitting.

1. Rollout¹ 6/3* 4/3 eq:+0.474
Player: 60.45% (G:20.88% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 39.55% (G:8.92% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.466..+0.481) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.402 (-0.072)
Player: 59.38% (G:17.42% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 40.62% (G:8.29% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.395..+0.409) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Tuesday, November 1, 2022 at 12:32:07 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=--aaC-C-C-B-cB---c-cbBb---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31
I didn't roll out 10/7 8/7; compared to 8/5 6/5, it makes an inferior
point and creates a blot, so it can't be better. The real choice is
between 8/5 6/5 and 6/3* 4/3. Of course the 3pt is inferior to the 5pt
but 6/3* 4/3 has the advantage of being a PoH play. The rollout below
puts 6/3* 4/3 clearly ahead of 8/5 6/5.

In their book on playing 31 in the opening, Ballard and Weaver have a section about hitting on the 3rd roll. Since making the 5pt is often
an option with a roll of 31, there are several "hit or make the 5pt?" positions in the book. This can be a subtle choice, but if you can
hit without creating any weaknesses, this often trumps making the 5pt without hitting.

1. Rollout¹ 6/3* 4/3 eq:+0.474
Player: 60.45% (G:20.88% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 39.55% (G:8.92% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.466..+0.481) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.402 (-0.072)
Player: 59.38% (G:17.42% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 40.62% (G:8.29% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.395..+0.409) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Wrong thread, I think.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Tuesday, November 1, 2022 at 10:34:50 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Tuesday, November 1, 2022 at 12:32:07 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=--aaC-C-C-B-cB---c-cbBb---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31
I didn't roll out 10/7 8/7; compared to 8/5 6/5, it makes an inferior point and creates a blot, so it can't be better. The real choice is between 8/5 6/5 and 6/3* 4/3. Of course the 3pt is inferior to the 5pt
but 6/3* 4/3 has the advantage of being a PoH play. The rollout below
puts 6/3* 4/3 clearly ahead of 8/5 6/5.

In their book on playing 31 in the opening, Ballard and Weaver have a section about hitting on the 3rd roll. Since making the 5pt is often
an option with a roll of 31, there are several "hit or make the 5pt?" positions in the book. This can be a subtle choice, but if you can
hit without creating any weaknesses, this often trumps making the 5pt without hitting.

1. Rollout¹ 6/3* 4/3 eq:+0.474
Player: 60.45% (G:20.88% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 39.55% (G:8.92% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.466..+0.481) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.402 (-0.072)
Player: 59.38% (G:17.42% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 40.62% (G:8.29% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.395..+0.409) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Wrong thread, I think.

Paul

I see it (again) as Tim posting into an already existing thread. He suggested it was a problem with my newsreader so maybe it's a problem on his end and not ours?

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 11/1/2022 10:44 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

Wrong thread, I think.

Paul

I see it (again) as Tim posting into an already existing thread. He suggested it was a problem with my newsreader so maybe it's a problem on his end and not ours?

Are both of you using Google Groups? Google Groups is the worst
USENET interface I've ever seen. Its main redeeming feature is that
it doesn't require you to install any software or register or anything
like that. But it pretty much sucks in every other way. For r.g.b. specifically, its inability to cope with ASCII graphics is practically
a dealbreaker.

Any newsreader that uses the Message-ID for threading---as it should--- shouldn't have any problems with these particular posts.

---
Tim Chow

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