XGID=--bBB-DBCA-ab---abad-Ab---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O | +---+
| O | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
| O O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 106 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 10/28/2022 9:10 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=--bBB-DBCA-ab---abad-Ab---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |          O  O  O |   | O     X  O       | +---+
 |             O    |   | O        O       | | 2 |
 |                  |   | O                | +---+
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |             X    |   | X                |
 | O           X  X |   | X     X  X  O    |
 | O  O     X  X  X |   | X     X  X  O    |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 106  O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

Making the five point builds a full prime. Usually that's the best choice.

Is hitting better? It appears to win more gammons, although often the
play that wins more gammons does that because it wins more games.

O has 13 checkers ready to pounce on the straggler, so perhaps taking
away half O's roll is the right idea, and there are a few rolls that
trap the runner and break the prime. But I can't resist making the full
prime.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, October 28, 2022 at 2:10:47 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=--bBB-DBCA-ab---abad-Ab---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O | +---+
| O | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
| O O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 106 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

I'd definitely hit on the 16 here.
Making the full prime gives plenty of opportunities for the opponent to attack and trap
and then win when we have to disintegrate our prime.
So I think hitting on 16 is also the DMP play.
Note the duplication in that 5 is an entering number as well as a return-hitting number.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--bBB-DBCA-ab---abad-Ab---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X O | +---+
| O | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
| O O X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 106 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

Making the 5pt *and* completing a six-prime---what's not to like?
Well, for starters, O has enough counterplay against X's straggler
that the six-prime is far from the "guaranteed win" that it often is
(when I say "guaranteed," I mean ~90%, not 100%). Note for example
that after 9/5 6/5, any 6 that X can't play with his straggler will
crack his six-prime. X's five-prime already contains much of the
power of the six-prime here, and hitting certainly wins a lot more
gammons---X has good chances of picking up yet another blot.

1. Rollout¹ 21/16* eq:+0.649
Player: 73.28% (G:30.82% B:1.82%)
Opponent: 26.72% (G:3.36% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.641..+0.657) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/5 6/5 eq:+0.487 (-0.161)
Player: 71.39% (G:19.59% B:1.00%)
Opponent: 28.61% (G:3.61% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.479..+0.496) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)