XGID=-BBAA-C-B-A-bBac---cbAbb--:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

If you have browsed the old posts from Stick's forum that I recently
copied to my website, this problem may remind you of "Do you have the
guts to hit?"

http://alum.mit.edu/www/tchow/cg/www.bgonline.org/forums/160751.html

There, whether or not the computer hits depends on the cube location.
Here, XG does not hit, regardless of the cube location. Hitting is
its DMP play but O's four-point board means that X loses a ton of
gammons if he hits.

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/4 eq:-0.292
Player: 32.80% (G:6.79% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 67.20% (G:10.33% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.297..-0.287) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/14* eq:-0.363 (-0.071)
Player: 38.13% (G:10.00% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 61.87% (G:36.57% B:3.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.370..-0.356) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-A-B-ADbC---bB-a-b-ccBb---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

It is indeed too risky to hit. Hitting would be indicated at gammon go,
but not for money or even DMP.

1. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 13/10(2) eq:+0.138
Player: 54.33% (G:5.94% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 45.67% (G:4.94% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.128..+0.148) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 8/5 6/3 eq:-0.043 (-0.181)
Player: 49.18% (G:7.99% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 50.82% (G:10.80% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.054..-0.032) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/18 21/15* 8/5 eq:-0.074 (-0.213)
Player: 48.78% (G:17.11% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 51.22% (G:21.27% B:1.13%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.087..-0.062) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)