• Step up?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Aug 8 21:27:43 2021
    XGID=----bBDBB---bC-aabbc--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 00e57dddc8aa83b34ed22b8e49d068ac0c633a169c6cbf0e517

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    Sneak preview of next problem:
    Break the bar point anchor? 3 9373f03a1c83802c0f1d1b48bd77c3c37be13233eeb7fe745fb81cd2
    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 11 09:20:07 2021
    XGID=----bBDBB---bC-aabbc--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 00e57dddc8aa83b34ed22b8e49d068ac0c633a169c6cbf0e517

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43

    This is a commonly-occurring theme. O has an advanced anchor and
    is threatening to achieve a decisive advantage in the priming battle.
    Stepping up is imperative. Not only that, look at how vital XG thinks
    it is to step up with *both* checkers. 24/21 24/20 looks like it's
    asking to get pointed on, but if one checker gets pointed on, X may
    be able to anchor on the other one.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/21 24/20 eq:-0.344
    Player: 43.60% (G:9.49% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 56.40% (G:22.90% B:0.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.358..-0.329) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq:-0.495 (-0.152)
    Player: 39.57% (G:9.12% B:0.46%)
    Opponent: 60.43% (G:23.35% B:1.13%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.508..-0.483) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/3 eq:-0.543 (-0.199)
    Player: 39.11% (G:9.15% B:0.45%)
    Opponent: 60.89% (G:23.35% B:0.88%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.556..-0.530) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Aug 15 04:06:24 2021
    On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 2:20:12 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=----bBDBB---bC-aabbc--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 00e57dddc8aa83b34ed22b8e49d068ac0c633a169c6cbf0e517

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43
    This is a commonly-occurring theme. O has an advanced anchor and
    is threatening to achieve a decisive advantage in the priming battle. Stepping up is imperative. Not only that, look at how vital XG thinks
    it is to step up with *both* checkers. 24/21 24/20 looks like it's
    asking to get pointed on, but if one checker gets pointed on, X may
    be able to anchor on the other one.

    In other words, pretend Paul Magriel is next to you, giving you advice,
    and play exactly the opposite of what he would say.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From J R@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu Aug 19 03:11:34 2021
    On Wednesday, August 11, 2021 at 9:20:12 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=----bBDBB---bC-aabbc--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 00e57dddc8aa83b34ed22b8e49d068ac0c633a169c6cbf0e517

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 43
    This is a commonly-occurring theme. O has an advanced anchor and
    is threatening to achieve a decisive advantage in the priming battle. Stepping up is imperative. Not only that, look at how vital XG thinks
    it is to step up with *both* checkers. 24/21 24/20 looks like it's
    asking to get pointed on, but if one checker gets pointed on, X may
    be able to anchor on the other one.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/21 24/20 eq:-0.344
    Player: 43.60% (G:9.49% B:0.42%)
    Opponent: 56.40% (G:22.90% B:0.56%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.358..-0.329) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq:-0.495 (-0.152)
    Player: 39.57% (G:9.12% B:0.46%)
    Opponent: 60.43% (G:23.35% B:1.13%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.508..-0.483) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/3 eq:-0.543 (-0.199)
    Player: 39.11% (G:9.15% B:0.45%)
    Opponent: 60.89% (G:23.35% B:0.88%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.556..-0.530) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Not only do we have vastly greater chances of anchoring high if we step up with both but generally we'll have more return shots from the bar too when we are pointed on.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Oct 10 22:59:46 2021
    XGID=--B-BbDB---Bba---bBbbb-b-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O X | | O O O O |
    | O X | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 133 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Oct 14 21:20:54 2021
    XGID=--B-BbDB---Bba---bBbbb-b-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O X | | O O O O |
    | O X | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 133 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    I don't like dumping checkers behind my opponent's anchor if I
    have a plausible alternative. I'm not totally sure why XG hates
    my play so much. I guess maybe 6/4 gives me a playable ace.

    See also the variant.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/4 eq:-0.324
    Player: 43.37% (G:8.55% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 56.63% (G:19.19% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.335..-0.312) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 eq:-0.401 (-0.077)
    Player: 42.29% (G:8.88% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 57.71% (G:22.01% B:0.52%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.416..-0.386) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--B-CbCB---Bba---bBbbb-b-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O X | | O O O O |
    | O X | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 4/2 eq:-0.414
    Player: 41.26% (G:7.82% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 58.74% (G:20.33% B:0.55%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.426..-0.402) - [74.7%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 eq:-0.420 (-0.007)
    Player: 42.21% (G:8.98% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 57.79% (G:22.35% B:0.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.436..-0.405) - [25.3%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Oct 15 00:36:07 2021
    On Friday, October 15, 2021 at 2:20:58 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=--B-BbDB---Bba---bBbbb-b-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O X | | O O O O |
    | O X | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 133 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21
    I don't like dumping checkers behind my opponent's anchor if I
    have a plausible alternative. I'm not totally sure why XG hates
    my play so much. I guess maybe 6/4 gives me a playable ace.

    See also the variant.

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/4 eq:-0.324
    Player: 43.37% (G:8.55% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 56.63% (G:19.19% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.335..-0.312) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 eq:-0.401 (-0.077)
    Player: 42.29% (G:8.88% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 57.71% (G:22.01% B:0.52%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.416..-0.386) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--B-CbCB---Bba---bBbbb-b-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O X | | O O O O |
    | O X | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 131 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21
    1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 4/2 eq:-0.414
    Player: 41.26% (G:7.82% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 58.74% (G:20.33% B:0.55%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.426..-0.402) - [74.7%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 eq:-0.420 (-0.007)
    Player: 42.21% (G:8.98% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 57.79% (G:22.35% B:0.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.436..-0.405) - [25.3%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    I think you've totally missed the point.
    Your main escaping opportunity is to anchor on your 18 point.
    Your play gives fewer opportunities to anchor so it's not a very good
    escaping play.
    But the huge problem with your play is that you needlessly give your opponent good 5s to attack with.
    XG is worried about the sequences where XG gets a 5 and you dance -- a combined probability of 19%.
    Playable aces are not a concern. 2/1 wouldn't hurt your position that much.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MK@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 18 00:53:46 2021
    No

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 11 08:12:28 2023
    XGID=-baBBBB--AAAbC---cbcb-A---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | X O | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X O |
    | O X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 127 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Aug 13 09:49:54 2023
    XGID=-baBBBB--AAAbC---cbcb-A---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | X O | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X O |
    | O X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 127 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41

    I thought it was time to step up, but XG's rollout below seems to send
    a message of "safety first." X's straggler is already able to escape
    with a 6 and so stepping up is not so urgent. O's best chance of
    getting back into the game is to hit a shot, so it makes sense to nip
    that plan in the bud and worry about escaping later.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/9 11/10 eq:+0.397
    Player: 66.39% (G:25.50% B:2.51%)
    Opponent: 33.61% (G:6.66% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.386..+0.407) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 11/10 9/5 eq:+0.375 (-0.022)
    Player: 65.12% (G:26.13% B:2.40%)
    Opponent: 34.88% (G:7.07% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.365..+0.385) - [0.1%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/9 10/9 eq:+0.319 (-0.077)
    Player: 63.65% (G:25.03% B:2.34%)
    Opponent: 36.35% (G:7.76% B:0.31%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.310..+0.329) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 22/21 13/9 eq:+0.282 (-0.115)
    Player: 62.21% (G:26.25% B:2.32%)
    Opponent: 37.79% (G:8.81% B:0.45%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.271..+0.294) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-baBBBB--AAAbC---cbcb--A--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | X O | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X X X O |
    | O X X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 128 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41

    1. Rollout¹ 23/22 13/9 eq:+0.296
    Player: 62.79% (G:26.09% B:2.72%)
    Opponent: 37.21% (G:9.12% B:0.45%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.287..+0.306) - [99.3%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/9 11/10 eq:+0.279 (-0.017)
    Player: 61.84% (G:25.35% B:2.55%)
    Opponent: 38.16% (G:7.53% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.269..+0.289) - [0.6%]

    3. Rollout¹ 23/22 9/5 eq:+0.272 (-0.024)
    Player: 61.57% (G:26.67% B:2.61%)
    Opponent: 38.43% (G:9.40% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.262..+0.283) - [0.1%]

    4. Rollout¹ 11/10 9/5 eq:+0.268 (-0.028)
    Player: 61.08% (G:26.11% B:2.55%)
    Opponent: 38.92% (G:7.72% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.258..+0.279) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=-baBBBB--AB-bC---cbcb-A---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X | +---+
    | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | X O | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 126 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41

    1. Rollout¹ 22/21 13/9 eq:+0.399
    Player: 65.34% (G:27.59% B:2.99%)
    Opponent: 34.66% (G:7.18% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.388..+0.410) - [97.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 10/9 10/6 eq:+0.384 (-0.014)
    Player: 65.34% (G:25.99% B:2.29%)
    Opponent: 34.66% (G:6.35% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.376..+0.393) - [2.4%]

    3. Rollout¹ 22/21 9/5 eq:+0.368 (-0.030)
    Player: 64.72% (G:26.80% B:2.52%)
    Opponent: 35.28% (G:7.28% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.358..+0.378) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 9/4 eq:+0.348 (-0.050)
    Player: 64.40% (G:25.99% B:2.31%)
    Opponent: 35.60% (G:7.24% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.339..+0.358) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Aug 14 18:02:03 2023
    On 8/11/2023 8:12 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-baBBBB--AAAbC---cbcb-A---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  O |   | O  O     X       | +---+
     | X           O  O |   | O  O             | | 2 |
     | X           O    |   | O                | +---+
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O                |   | X  X  X  X     O |
     | O  X  X  X       |   | X  X  X  X  O  O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 127  O: 163 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41


    13/9 11/10 to make two outfield points or 13/9 22/21 to step up to the edge?

    I don't think the 9 and 10 points are that valuable here, but it
    forestalls the fly shots (62, 63, 54). OTOH, stepping up provides more
    ways to extend the blockade. And on the gripping hand, in addition to
    the six fly shots, stepping up makes it more likely that O will hit the
    runner and when you add in all those shots the safer play looks a bit
    better.

    Make the 9 and 10 points.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

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