On Friday, October 14, 2022 at 8:41:13 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=aBB-BBC----Bd---bbAe-A-a--:1:-1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O X O | +---+
| O O | | O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 55
What's the DMP play? XG marginally favors the pedestrian 18/8 11/6(2)
at DMP, but the bold slotting play 18/3 11/6 is its overwhelming
preference for money. Closing the board would all but lock up the
gammon, and even if O hits from the bar, her weak board means that X
will usually not be too unhappy about getting hit.
1. Rollout¹ 18/3 11/6 eq:+1.285
Player: 85.43% (G:65.90% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 14.57% (G:2.21% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.278..+1.291) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 18/8 11/1 eq:+1.201 (-0.084)
Player: 85.17% (G:58.12% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 14.83% (G:1.97% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.194..+1.208) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 18/8 11/6(2) eq:+1.188 (-0.096)
Player: 85.71% (G:55.35% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 14.29% (G:1.40% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+1.181..+1.196) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
I'm not sure why we're bringing up DMP here but the difference in plays is .003 with the best play being 8, 6(2) which comes in third in your rollout.
Stick
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