The below position would make a plausible quiz question for Tim.
However, he would give it a much more prosaic and dully descriptive
title like "Opening blitz cube action".
This is a more serious approach, and is of great help to those who
value organisation and systematization of knowledge. But I enjoy
much more giving freer rein to my imagination.
Chacun a son gout as Stick (who majored in French) might say.

Paul Epstein

XGID=ab-aBaD-C---cD---c-d-A-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 202 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

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On 10/10/2022 6:49 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=ab-aBaD-C---cD---c-d-A-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 202 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Despite the 50-pip difference, this looks like an easy take to me.
X has only a two-point board and nine checkers in the zone. O
already has an anchor and is probably going to get a second one;
she has no structural weaknesses, and if she anchors on the 3pt
(say) then she should be ready to play a viable backgame.

I don't think I would double here. X may lose his market if O
dances, but that's not too likely.

---
Tim Chow

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On Tuesday, October 11, 2022 at 2:07:28 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:

On 10/10/2022 6:49 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

XGID=ab-aBaD-C---cD---c-d-A-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 202 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Despite the 50-pip difference, this looks like an easy take to me.
X has only a two-point board and nine checkers in the zone. O
already has an anchor and is probably going to get a second one;
she has no structural weaknesses, and if she anchors on the 3pt
(say) then she should be ready to play a viable backgame.

I don't think I would double here. X may lose his market if O
dances, but that's not too likely.

It's a monster double and a marginal take/pass.
Possibly a hyper by you according to my new terminology.
XG passed OTB but took in the rollout.

Paul

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.78% (G:34.40% B:5.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.22% (G:6.07% B:0.28%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.90% (G:34.71% B:5.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.10% (G:5.95% B:0.27%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.633, Double=+1.281

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.786 (-0.196)
Double/Take: +0.982
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.018)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.017 (+0.769..+0.803)
Confidence Double: ± 0.026 (+0.956..+1.008)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 91.4%

Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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