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  • Lots of good things you can do, but you can't do them all

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 10 09:14:14 2022
    XGID=---aBBBABA-AcB---cbcAc--A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Oct 12 08:42:42 2022
    XGID=---aBBBABA-AcB---cbcAc--A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | O | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    I made the golden point and a solid five-prime with 24/20 9/7. What's
    not to like? Well, O's straggler is at the edge of the five-prime.
    The alternative, 24/20 11/9, leaves a direct shot but threatens to make
    a six-prime. XG says it's well worth the risk. If O fails to hit right
    away, then X has a strong cube.

    If O already owned the cube, then XG would still favor 11/9 over 9/7,
    but by a smaller margin.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/20 11/9 eq:+0.507
    Player: 61.76% (G:14.49% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 38.24% (G:6.79% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.493..+0.522) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/20 9/7 eq:+0.389 (-0.118)
    Player: 60.01% (G:13.17% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 39.99% (G:4.96% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.375..+0.404) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Oct 15 15:03:48 2022
    On 10/10/2022 9:14 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=---aBBBABA-AcB---cbcAc--A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  O |   | O  X  O        X |
     | X           O  O |   | O     O          |  |             O    |   | O     O          |  |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O                |   |                  |
     | O           X    |   | X  X  X          |
     | O  X     X  X  X |   | X  X  X  O       |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 143  O: 129 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    Making the GP and the bar point seems obvious. Maybe the aggressive
    11/9 7/3* is better, but the other play leaves a position that looks
    more "pretty". I'll do that.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)