• What does Stick say about the 3pt anchor?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Oct 5 08:27:26 2022
    Answer: Nothing. He insists on calling it the 22pt anchor.

    XGID=----aBD-B-B-dCb--c-cb-B---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Oct 7 21:43:02 2022
    XGID=----aBD-B-B-dCb--c-cb-B---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 153 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 54

    XG runs off the anchor. In part, this is because the 3pt anchor is
    not as big an asset as a higher anchor---but see also the variants.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/13 eq:+0.011
    Player: 49.88% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 50.12% (G:9.79% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.005..+0.016) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:-0.097 (-0.108)
    Player: 46.24% (G:15.24% B:0.40%)
    Opponent: 53.76% (G:11.41% B:0.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.104..-0.090) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=----aBE-B--BdBb--c-cbB----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 146 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/4* eq:+0.034
    Player: 48.84% (G:15.94% B:0.33%)
    Opponent: 51.16% (G:8.18% B:0.39%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.027..+0.041) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:-0.047 (-0.081)
    Player: 48.15% (G:10.66% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 51.85% (G:9.45% B:0.33%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.054..-0.040) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=----aBE-BB--dBb--c-cbB----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 142 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:+0.088
    Player: 51.72% (G:13.36% B:0.49%)
    Opponent: 48.28% (G:9.07% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.082..+0.094) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 21/15 6/4* eq:+0.048 (-0.040)
    Player: 50.88% (G:15.80% B:0.53%)
    Opponent: 49.12% (G:13.55% B:0.78%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.040..+0.056) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 10 12:09:02 2022
    1. Rollout¹ 3/13 eq:+0.011
    Player: 49.88% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 50.12% (G:9.79% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.005..+0.016) - [100.0%]

    I fixed the rollout results for you.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Mon Oct 10 17:50:42 2022
    On 10/10/2022 3:09 PM, Stick Rice wrote:


    1. Rollout¹ 3/13 eq:+0.011
    Player: 49.88% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 50.12% (G:9.79% B:0.32%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.005..+0.016) - [100.0%]

    I fixed the rollout results for you.

    I actually recall having seen people write 3/12 for this play,
    though I can't remember off the top of my head where I saw it.
    (That is, both players' plays, including the opponent's, are
    notated using the numbering of the points from the player's side.)

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)