24/22 with double aces in the opening seems counter-intuitive to me, but,
I thought, if that's what the theory says, I'm happy to roll with it.
But I got massively dinged for playing it here.
Maybe the point is that 24/22 puts me under the gun too much.
I think 8/7(2) 6/5(2) might generally be the safest from a PR standpoint,
if you don't want to do too much memorization. When 24/22 is best,
it might not be best by so much.
Of course, 8/7(2) should be played with caution if it exposes a direct shot.

Paul

XGID=-b----E-C---cE-aac-e----B-:0:0:1:11:2:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:2 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 160 X-O: 2-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

1. Book¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq:+0.219
Player: 55.70% (G:16.42% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 44.30% (G:13.89% B:0.79%)

2. XG Roller+ 24/22 6/5(2) eq:+0.128 (-0.091)
Player: 53.90% (G:14.23% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 46.10% (G:13.92% B:0.50%)

3. Book¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.055 (-0.164)
Player: 51.51% (G:15.02% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 48.49% (G:15.27% B:0.77%)

4. 3-ply 24/23 6/5(3) eq:+0.100 (-0.118)
Player: 53.30% (G:14.56% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 46.70% (G:14.35% B:0.55%)

5. 3-ply 24/23(2) 6/5(2) eq:+0.084 (-0.135)
Player: 52.43% (G:14.37% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 47.57% (G:13.25% B:0.54%)


¹Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 26/02/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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"peps...@gmail.com" <pepstein5@gmail.com> writes:

I think 8/7(2) 6/5(2) might generally be the safest from a PR
standpoint, if you don't want to do too much memorization. When 24/22
is best, it might not be best by so much. Of course, 8/7(2) should be
played with caution if it exposes a direct shot.

Now you are getting close. Like you I do not want too much memorization:
I play 6/4*(2) if possible, 24/22 6/5(2) after a non-6 split, and 8/7(2)
6/5(2) else. See

https://bkgm.com/articles/Reichert/first-two-rolls-flowcharts.pdf

This heuristic is always below 0.01 equity loss. See page 53 of

https://bkgm.com/articles/Reichert/first-two-rolls.pdf

Best regards

Axel

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On 10/2/2022 2:57 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

24/22 with double aces in the opening seems counter-intuitive to me, but,
I thought, if that's what the theory says, I'm happy to roll with it.
But I got massively dinged for playing it here.
Maybe the point is that 24/22 puts me under the gun too much.
I think 8/7(2) 6/5(2) might generally be the safest from a PR standpoint,
if you don't want to do too much memorization. When 24/22 is best,
it might not be best by so much.
Of course, 8/7(2) should be played with caution if it exposes a direct shot.

It absolutely is *NOT* because 24/22 puts you "under the gun."
Speaking of false rumors, the "under the gun" heuristic is one of
the least helpful "rules" that Magriel proposed. I think I mentioned
not long ago that I've found that it mostly applies only when you are
choosing between two different splits, not when you are deciding whether
to split at all.

But otherwise, yes, if you roll 11 on the second roll and you can't
hit, then 8/7(2) 6/5(2) is the usual play, unless it exposes a direct
shot. What I mentioned before is that rollouts suggest that 24/22
6/5(2) is preferred when your opponent has opened with 8/5 6/5. The
point is that 8/5 6/5 is a stronger priming play than most people
give it credit for. In your position here, your opponent has no prime
to worry about, so there's no reason to favor 24/22 over 8/7(2).

---
Tim Chow

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