• Weird blitz cube

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Oct 7 22:27:20 2021
    XGID=bBaCbAE-B-a-a------bbbbAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O X X |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X O X X |
    | O O X | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 179 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Fri Oct 8 02:07:08 2021
    On Friday, October 8, 2021 at 3:27:19 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=bBaCbAE-B-a-a------bbbbAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O X X |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X O X X |
    | O O X | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 179 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Well, how on earth are we supposed to know??
    A player's intuition is bound to be based on experiences of similar positions. But if the position is "weird", then, by definition, a similar position won't have come up,
    so the grounds for intuition are limited.

    Our position is nicely diversified with 5s and 6s leaping and 3s and 1s making the 5 point.
    With the opponent's two blots, there's gammon potential and plenty of market losers.

    On the other hand, the opponent's inner board is strong and we can be in trouble if hit, or if we don't escape
    the inner board quickly. Our opponent is somewhat protected by the four point anchor.

    So D/T is my verdict.
    Am I confident? No, not at all.
    So I'd like to rank them.
    D/T -- 1st choice.
    D/P -- 2nd choice.
    ND/T -- 3rd choice.
    TG -- 4th choice. (Tim, I think it's non-Jacoby if stated otherwise. Please correct me if this is wrong.)
    ND/Beaver -- 5th choice (Partly because I think it's non-beaver unless stated otherwise).
    ND/Beaver/Raccoon -- 6th choice. Logical reasoning leads me to believe that beaver/raccoon means (at least) one of the two sides is making an error.
    Storm out of the game and shout abuse at your opponent, leaving the cube action undetermined -- Final choice because ethical play and good behaviour are paramount.

    Paul

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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 11 23:21:34 2021
    XGID=bBaCbAE-B-a-a------bbbbAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | | | O O O O X X |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | X |
    | | O | X |
    | | | X X |
    | X | | X O X X |
    | O O X | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 179 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Paul's point about weird positions is well taken. All I can say is,
    maybe seeing the bot's verdict for this position will help you in the
    future if you encounter something vaguely similar.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 57.27% (G:47.11% B:6.28%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 42.73% (G:11.27% B:0.53%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 57.27% (G:46.82% B:6.90%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 42.73% (G:11.14% B:0.54%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.574 (-0.194)
    Double/Take: +0.768
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.232)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.017 (+0.557..+0.591)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.027 (+0.741..+0.795)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

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