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  • Tim would take this because it's "huge" that we have the 5 point.

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Wed Oct 6 13:28:18 2021
    XGID=-a---BE-B---cDa--cacAa--bA:0:0:-1:00:6:12:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:12 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 129 O: 153 X-O: 12-6
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Thu Oct 7 22:20:50 2021
    On 10/6/2021 4:28 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    XGID=-a---BE-B---cDa--cacAa--bA:0:0:-1:00:6:12:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:12 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 129 O: 153 X-O: 12-6
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Trice has a relevant discussion in "Backgammon Boot Camp."
    Having 11 checkers in the zone roughly balances out the 5pt
    in Trice's position, if I recall correctly. Here, X has the
    added advantage of having escaped one of his back checkers,
    and he's way ahead in the pip count. I think I'd pass this one.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Sun Oct 10 04:39:14 2021
    On Friday, October 8, 2021 at 3:20:50 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 10/6/2021 4:28 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    XGID=-a---BE-B---cDa--cacAa--bA:0:0:-1:00:6:12:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:12 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 129 O: 153 X-O: 12-6
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Trice has a relevant discussion in "Backgammon Boot Camp."
    Having 11 checkers in the zone roughly balances out the 5pt
    in Trice's position, if I recall correctly. Here, X has the
    added advantage of having escaped one of his back checkers,
    and he's way ahead in the pip count. I think I'd pass this one.

    I posted a similar (in my opinion) position recently. There you guessed
    a close take whereas it was actually a big take. I think your way of thinking about these positions is good but your final judgment of the equities underestimates
    the underdog's chances.
    You're correct that this position is worse for the underdog than the previous blitz I posted
    where the underdog owns the 5 point.
    However, it's not worse by enough to make it a pass.
    D/T.


    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 65.16% (G:35.97% B:0.49%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 34.84% (G:8.90% B:0.45%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.97% (G:37.76% B:0.48%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.03% (G:9.52% B:0.53%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.574, Double=+1.163

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.643 (-0.241)
    Double/Take: +0.884
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.116)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.634..+0.653)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.867..+0.902)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 49 minutes 04 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sun Oct 10 04:41:53 2021
    On Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 12:39:16 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, October 8, 2021 at 3:20:50 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 10/6/2021 4:28 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    XGID=-a---BE-B---cDa--cacAa--bA:0:0:-1:00:6:12:3:0:10
    X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel

    Score is X:12 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X |
    | O X X X | | X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 129 O: 153 X-O: 12-6
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Trice has a relevant discussion in "Backgammon Boot Camp."
    Having 11 checkers in the zone roughly balances out the 5pt
    in Trice's position, if I recall correctly. Here, X has the
    added advantage of having escaped one of his back checkers,
    and he's way ahead in the pip count. I think I'd pass this one.
    I posted a similar (in my opinion) position recently. There you guessed
    a close take whereas it was actually a big take. I think your way of thinking about these positions is good but your final judgment of the equities underestimates
    the underdog's chances.
    You're correct that this position is worse for the underdog than the previous blitz I posted
    where the underdog owns the 5 point.
    However, it's not worse by enough to make it a pass.
    ...

    Actually, I misremembered the equity from the previous position.
    It's almost identical to this one. They're both 0.88 to 2dp.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)