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  • How to shuffle

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Oct 5 23:07:51 2021
    XGID=--BCBBB-----bB-----bBbcdb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 65 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed Oct 6 08:43:51 2021
    On Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 4:41:02 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 4:07:54 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=--BCBBB-----bB-----bBbcdb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 65 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11
    The opponent has a lot of immediate shotleavers -- any 6 that isn't 66 and also 52.
    Our play won't affect the probability of hitting a shot but it will affect how good our
    position is immediately after hitting.
    Clearly we don't want to leave a blot in our inner board. Also we want a five point board.
    So I think 3/1 2/1(2) is more or less forced, and other plays might be whoppers.
    Wasting a checker by overloading the ace might seem positionally ugly but it doesn't matter here.

    3/1 2/1(2) for me.

    Typo -- 51 is the shotleaving number (apart from 6's) not 52. Doesn't affect my (probably wrong) analysis, though.
    3/1 2/1(2)

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Oct 6 08:41:01 2021
    On Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 4:07:54 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=--BCBBB-----bB-----bBbcdb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 65 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    The opponent has a lot of immediate shotleavers -- any 6 that isn't 66 and also 52.
    Our play won't affect the probability of hitting a shot but it will affect how good our
    position is immediately after hitting.
    Clearly we don't want to leave a blot in our inner board. Also we want a five point board.
    So I think 3/1 2/1(2) is more or less forced, and other plays might be whoppers.
    Wasting a checker by overloading the ace might seem positionally ugly but it doesn't matter here.

    3/1 2/1(2) for me.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed Oct 6 08:44:47 2021
    On Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 4:43:52 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 4:41:02 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 4:07:54 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=--BCBBB-----bB-----bBbcdb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 65 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11
    The opponent has a lot of immediate shotleavers -- any 6 that isn't 66 and also 52.
    Our play won't affect the probability of hitting a shot but it will affect how good our
    position is immediately after hitting.
    Clearly we don't want to leave a blot in our inner board. Also we want a five point board.
    So I think 3/1 2/1(2) is more or less forced, and other plays might be whoppers.
    Wasting a checker by overloading the ace might seem positionally ugly but it doesn't matter here.

    3/1 2/1(2) for me.
    Typo -- 51 is the shotleaving number (apart from 6's) not 52. Doesn't affect my (probably wrong) analysis, though.
    3/1 2/1(2)

    And 41 is a shotleaver too which strengthens my argument.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Oct 10 22:59:11 2021
    XGID=--BCBBB-----bB-----bBbcdb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 65 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11

    Burying a third checker on the 1pt goes against the grain, but if
    X is going to get a shot at all, now is a very likely time for it,
    so he'd rather not leave a blot in his board.

    1. Rollout¹ 3/1 2/1(2) eq:-0.093
    Player: 37.90% (G:4.67% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 62.10% (G:3.42% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.098..-0.088) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 3/1(2) eq:-0.169 (-0.076)
    Player: 37.11% (G:4.44% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 62.89% (G:6.42% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.175..-0.163) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Mon Oct 11 02:47:11 2021
    On Monday, October 11, 2021 at 3:59:13 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=--BCBBB-----bB-----bBbcdb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 109 O: 65 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 11
    Burying a third checker on the 1pt goes against the grain, but if
    X is going to get a shot at all, now is a very likely time for it,
    so he'd rather not leave a blot in his board.

    1. Rollout¹ 3/1 2/1(2) eq:-0.093
    Player: 37.90% (G:4.67% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 62.10% (G:3.42% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.098..-0.088) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 3/1(2) eq:-0.169 (-0.076)
    Player: 37.11% (G:4.44% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 62.89% (G:6.42% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.175..-0.163) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    Did you meet this position OTB? Did you get it right?
    My analysis was absolutely brilliant (if immodest),
    but the problem is that I can easily miss this play in a game.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Mon Oct 11 23:16:12 2021
    On 10/11/2021 5:47 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Did you meet this position OTB? Did you get it right?

    Yes and no.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)