XGID=--bb--E-D-B-eB---a-c-b--B-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X O O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 189 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, September 19, 2022 at 8:11:52 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:

XGID=--bb--E-D-B-eB---a-c-b--B-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X O O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 189 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

Seems pretty "forced" ... "forced" to me.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=--bb--E-D-B-eB---a-c-b--B-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X O O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 189 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 32

Should X play safe or bold? He has fewer checkers back and the
weaker board, and he has a big lead in the pip count. So obviously,
XG plays...bold! Or at least, what Nack calls "wild": splitting
and slotting with 24/22 8/5.

The explanation, I believe, is that X's priority here is to get his
back checkers going, since they are getting disconnected from the
rest of his army. So 24/22 is "forced" and then he has to find a 3.
13/10 is "safer" but it has less upside if X is missed. Since O has
only 6 checkers in the zone, the danger of getting blitzed is not
that great yet.

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/5 eq:+0.311
Player: 52.58% (G:17.37% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 47.42% (G:12.85% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.296..+0.326) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/22 13/10 eq:+0.227 (-0.083)
Player: 49.53% (G:17.71% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 50.47% (G:13.49% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.213..+0.242) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/4 eq:+0.201 (-0.110)
Player: 49.62% (G:16.35% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 50.38% (G:15.48% B:1.17%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.187..+0.215) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:+0.198 (-0.112)
Player: 48.66% (G:17.55% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 51.34% (G:13.95% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.184..+0.213) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:+0.185 (-0.125)
Player: 48.51% (G:17.88% B:0.82%)
Opponent: 51.49% (G:15.87% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.171..+0.200) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)