On 9/18/2022 7:23 PM,
peps...@gmail.com wrote:
This is a thin double and a huge take.
I'm not sure how the equities compare with the standard
position with 8 vs 8 all on the acepoint.
Both positions are double/take. I think this position
is better for the underdog than 8 vs 8 all on the acepoint
and that the standard double is not usually this thin.
But I don't know.
Paul
XGID=-CCA-------------------eb-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X | | 2 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 12 O: 12 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances: 73.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.474, Double=+0.947
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.788 (-0.010)
Redouble/Take: +0.798
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.202)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
It's easy to be lulled into approximating a position as an N-roll
position when it's not. Here O is off in four rolls even if she rolls
21 four times in a row. X misses (only bears off one) if he rolls three
aces, but he can afford to miss once so only loses when he shakkes four
aces in a row, ignoring doubles.
I'm surprised that that makes such a difference, but I should have
learned by not to not be so easily surprised by this game.
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