On Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 4:06:43 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
On 10/2/2021 6:45 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
XGID=-b---BE-B---dD---aac--b-bB:0:0:-1:00:6:20:3:0:10
X:eXtremeGammon O:Daniel
Score is X:20 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 158 X-O: 20-6
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Say O wins the opening roll with 52 and splits, and then X blitzes
with a 55 and O dances. This is a clear pass. Here, X has an extra
checker in the zone, which would make it an even clearer pass, but
the catch is that O has made her 5pt, which is huge. I'd double for
sure and am guessing it's a close take.
No, Tim. It's a big take (by your own previous definition), rather than
a close take.
I (wrongly) passed. I wouldn't have been surprised to have been slightly wrong, but was dismayed at the size of the blunder, and therefore having
my play marked as "beginner".
I also used the same reference position as you. The problem is that I haven't seen
the actual equity and, when I try to set up positions in XG (rather than simply copying
positions from a game), everything goes haywire, I can't set the position up, and end
up extremely frustrated. However, I think that the pass is not more than 0.1 so we're
only looking for a 0.1 improvement for a take, and the 5 point gives far more than that.
I also note that your reference position (Splitting 52, 55, dance) is a big take at 2A 2A
(and therefore holding after your opponent rolls 52 and splits is a good tactical move if your
opponent is non-expert or might be non-expert.)
Paul
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 63.57% (G:39.61% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.43% (G:10.51% B:0.61%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.87% (G:41.41% B:0.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.13% (G:10.84% B:0.69%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.561, Double=+1.161
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.723 (-0.153)
Double/Take: +0.876
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.124)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.712..+0.734)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+0.858..+0.893)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 33 minutes 53 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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